Mav's Combine Proposition

Prez · Sep 8, 2012

Mav, after reading this thread, I am still puzzled.

Did you begin it out of boredom?

You are surely not trying to crowdsource a business plan.

Or, am I giving you too much credit.

Prez

dealmaker · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from Maverick74:

So I've been thinking about this in regards to the rather lengthy topstep tradfer threads. Some guys wanted me to put forth my ideas on how I would run a combine if I were to back traders. I truly believe this is a risky deal for the owner and I raised my suspicions that this model is not as lucrative as some of the guys think. Although I do think it has a lot of potential.

So I'm going to design something that is fair to me first, the owner. This is a business after all and it's not charity. I will make it tolerable for the trader, key word being tolerable. It's not on me to make this easy.

So first things first. I'm going to incorporate a lot of what topstep is doing and some of what they are not. By putting this out there I actually hope they take some of these ideas up because I honestly don't have much interest in backing traders. Running an airline if probably much more profitable. Which is a joke of course because most airlines are not profitable.

I'm going to offer a 6 month program. The idea behind this is to focus on trader development. It will cost $1500 up front. There is NO refund. This is what is in it for ME. I want this money. I don't care if you quit after 3 days or if you make a zillion dollars, this is the program cost.

Now, each month, we are going to focus on different stages of trader development. This whole thing is not cumulative. So every month we are working on different things. You have to pass the objectives for EACH month before moving to the next one. If you fail any given month, you will need to do it over and it will cost you $200 each time. There is NO refunds on this money.

The good news is there will be NO profit objectives. We instead are focusing on behavior and performance metrics. I want to "build" a good trader, not a good track record.

At the end of the 6 months, you WILL go live. No questions asked. Once you COMPLETE the program, you have graduated and will get funded. Period! There will be no profit objectives and no rules EXCEPT a daily stop rule. You will also have a drawdown stop where if you hit that, you will go back to repeat month 6 of the combine again for 20 days. It will NOT cost you 200 to do this. You must PASS month 6 in order to go live again. Once you go live, you WILL have to make back 50% of your losses.

This entire contract is for 2 years. This is not a non compete, you can leave anytime you want. What this means is that I HAVE to back you for the entire period of the contract no questions asked. I can't kick you out. I have to put money on the line for you as long as you are in the 2 year program.

Once you go live, it will be a 50/50 split. I WILL, I repeat WILL take my 50% cut at the end of each month. You will also get your cut whether you want it or not. This 50/50 split stays in force until the 2 years is up which if you agree to continue will increase to 80/20 going forward.

The stop points for going back to the combine will be 10k the first time. You can trade anyway you want. Any contract you want. Any size you want. Any rules you want, any day you want. Once you are 10k in drawdown, you go back to repeat month 6. If you pass month 6 you go live again. You will given 5k to lose the 2nd time. If you lose another 5k, back to month 6 of the combine you go for 20 days. Upon passing that month again, you will go live again. When you go live again, I absorb 50% of the previous losses and you have to make back the rest. The 3rd time you will also be give 5k in losses. The 4th time it drops to 2500. The 5th time 2500. And then every time after that 1k. I have to keep backing you not matter how bad you are. So I have to drop the loss amount as you keep losing. I will absorb 50% of each loss when you go back to the combine.

Now let's move on to the monthly goals when you start.

Month 1

I just want to watch you trade and have you get familiar with the platform. The only rule this month is the daily stop. I will set it at 2k. You can trade anything you want. You can lose as much money as you want. You can technically lose 20k and still pass month one. I just want to see you honor daily stops. If you get through the first phase, we move on to month 2 and your p&l resets.

Month 2

We will keep the daily stop at 2k and add a second rule. You can lose money, but you can't lose more then 10k for the month. That's it! I just want to see you to continue to honor the daily stop rule and now keep your losses in check. I do NOT expect you to be profitable the first two months. Remember, we are building traders here, not a track record. If you pass month 2, we move on to the next one. If you fail this month, you pay 200 to stay in the program and do month 2 over, just like grade school. Keep in mind there are still no other rules or restrictions other then what is listed.

Month 3

Now I want to see progress. You have to honor the 2k daily stop out rule and the 10k drawdown rule. But, by the end of the month, you have to be profitable. It can be by one dollar. And you can lose money intra-month as long as it does not exceed 10k. Any violation of the 2k daily stop rule is an automatic monthly failure. You have to make money in month 3 guys.

Month 4

All the previous rules apply, now we are adding a performance metric. You need to be profitable on more then 50% of your trades. I want you to focus on quality, not quantity. Take fewer trades.

Month 5

Same rules as above but adding that your biggest winners have to be larger then your biggest losers. So again, can't lose more then 10k during the month. Must be profitable, can't lose more then 2k in one day, more then 50% winners and no losing trade can be larger then your best winning trade.

Month 6

Almost there! Here is the good news. Month 6 since you might be going back to a lot, will be easier, but you must demonstrate you can trade down your size and your risk. So there are no rules on month 6 except you can't lose more then 2500 at worst drawdown. You must be profitable. And your daily stop is 1k, instead of 2k. You must show the discipline of scaling back. By this point you should be very good, making money on a consistent basis, honoring your stops, focusing on high quality trades. But when you get sent back down to the minors, you have to show you can scale back. When you go live again, you can trade however you like. Once you pass month 6, you are done!!!!

You now go live with a 50/50 split for the next 18 months. Do whatever you want as you now are a skilled and proficient trader.

Just remember, these are the drawdown stops outs:10k, 5k, 5k, 2500, 2500, 1000, 1000, etc.

When you go back down to the minors you have to repeat month 6 at no charge. Upon passing you go live again and you have to make back 50% of your losses.

Here's the good news, the first 3k of your p&l, instead of me taking 1500 of it, you get the first 3k to make back the 1500 combine cost. So everything after 3k, I get 50% at the end of each month. There are no rules once you go live except the monthly drawdown.

The purpose of this program is to get you to commit to 6 months and build your skills each month. We want to teach discipline and consistency. The first 3 months of live trading, we will keep the 2k daily stop rule in effect. After 3 months, we pull it. If you hit that stop the first 3 months, you do go back to month 6 of the combine. So don't hit it!

This is a rough draft and is now open for review!
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Trading SIM is not same as trading live, emotional trading is the biggest barrier to success in trading however I agree with you its about execution.
I wonder if you have seen the BBC reality series "Million Dollar Traders"? London hedge fund manager Lex Van Dam tried this sort of a thing...

ps "Million Dollar Traders" is available on Youtube.

Maverick74 · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from dealmaker:

Trading SIM is not same as trading live, emotional trading is the biggest barrier to success in trading however I agree with you its about execution.
I wonder if you have seen the BBC reality series "Million Dollar Traders"? London hedge fund manager Lex Van Dam tried this sort of a thing...

ps "Million Dollar Traders" is available on Youtube.
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Yeah I saw that show and that experiment was an utter failure. It was fun to watch though.

sle · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from Maverick74:
The only model I have EVER seen work with backing traders is when a firm already HAS an edge, whether it be market making, order flow, structured products, etc and they hire a guy to "execute" that edge.
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Well, I've seen a few models so far, but I've never ventured outside the professional environment (banks and funds):
-- In discretionary space, e.g. global macro or discretionary vol trading:
---- (a) hire a trader to trade your capital using your business model and your edge
---- (b) hire a guy with a track record and let him trade your firms capital using his edge
-- In systematic space:
---- (a) hire a trader to trade your edge and capital (e.g. if you are an MM firm)
---- (b) hire a guy with his models/strategies and track record (e.g. new PM for a fund)
---- (c) hire a guy without track record but lots of experience (e.g. HF hiring a sell-side trader)
---- (d) take a gamble; hire someone without a track record, but with some back-tested strategies
I can definitely see that the whole game of taking people off the street and giving them money would, on average, have negative expectation. I think the key problems are, as you have correctly summarized, the ability to risk manage these people properly and select the right guys day one.

PS. why not propose that your trainees would have to have engineering/mathematical/programming background and try to train them to do quantitative strategies?

zdreg · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from dealmaker:

Trading SIM is not same as trading live, emotional trading is the biggest barrier to success in trading however I agree with you its about execution.
I wonder if you have seen the BBC reality series "Million Dollar Traders"? London hedge fund manager Lex Van Dam tried this sort of a thing...

ps "Million Dollar Traders" is available on Youtube.
More...

+1

marketsurfer · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from justrading:

Damn, there go all my hopes and dreams, down the tubes with an almighty gurgle.

Hmm, I wonder how Victor Sperandeo and Marty Schwartz made their money.
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Fees and selling books?

marketsurfer · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from Maverick74:
The only model I have EVER seen work with backing traders is when a firm already HAS an edge, whether it be market making, order flow, structured products, etc and they hire a guy to "execute" that edge.

Yes, my experience 100%

justrading · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

Fees and selling books?
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Dig a bit more......

volente_00 · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from satchel:

A combine proposition that does not pre-select it's talent pool is like saying let's make the NBA combine open to all comers. Oh wait, if you are not invited it's pay <insert fee here> to participate. In the trading world that is churn and burn, combine owners make all the dough.
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Now why would a successful 7 figure floor trader need to churn and burn em ?

volente_00 · Sep 8, 2012

Quote from Maverick74:

doubt TST is making shit yet on this operation.
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Yea right

I guess they are just running this for charity ?

180-500 participants paying $160- $400 per month

27 live traders out of a minimum 5400 paid combiners in the last 30 months

I venture to say they are grossing min 28k per month from combines not including all the extra sales items that are on their site.

Quote from Maverick74:

The point of this thread was to demonstrate how bad of a business model it is backing traders.
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Which is why you set your business model up where you rarely back them

27 live out of a minimum 5400 particpants.

Not one making 30k before split

The revenue from this comes from those playing the game, not from trading

Numbers never lie