How can you fail to see ? If you are controlling the show you can see every order submitted canceled filled etc very easily. I'm not saying that is what is being done here but the technology exists to do it
//Start OT Rant// OK so we get into a trade where we are risking 5 to make 15. It moves 5 in our favor. By choosing to keep the trade open we are risking 10 to make 10. If it is profitable to keep the trade open at this point, it is profitable to make a 1:1 trade! It is all just playing momentum. And I have not had a "short" career. I've been at this 10 years, sometimes full time, sometimes not at all. The more I have focused on pure momentum and less on trying to predict large trends, the better my results. This business is littered with failures who thought they could predict things, many of whom choose to sell information after they fail. I see no reason not to question the conventional wisdom that is propogated by failed traders. And yes I understand sample size, black swan risk, slippage etc. I already stated I am pricing my trades to equal a net 1:1. I've traded a long time and played over 1,000,000 hands of poker, with most of them 4 handed or less. I understand sample size and variance lol. As far as black swan or your broker losing all your money, 3:1 don't help you there. And since you brought up sample size, if you make a solid 1 or 2 trades a day, do you have any idea how long it takes to develop a confident estimate of your expected value? How in the hell are you supposed to know your probability of success is high enough to give yourself x:x money odds? That is pure speculation. The older I get, the better my BS detector gets. This industry is full of BS. If it wasn't, the educators would be posting evidence to prove that they know what they are talking about. If someone doesn't have a long term track record they don't know wtf they are talking about. Every hard statistic from a brokerage I have seen points to a 95% failure rate. The conventional wisdom is not working lol. And don't tell me trading is just that hard. I've done a couple hard things in my life. Trading is not hard. I've been trading at night the last few months while I do something hard like memorize muscle origin, insertion, function, innervation. The trading is easy. Pick a side, make a bet. See what happens. It only becomes hard when we decide we need to be able to predict the future. Unless you are Jack Hershey, NoDoji, Al Brooks, or a vendor, you probably won't be able to do it. (I feel bad putting ND in that list because she has actually called some trades in real time, but you get the idea) All of the above only applies to me. I'me sure you will be in the 5% that can predict by following conventional wisdom. Oh wait, I stopped trying to predict a couple years ago, and have been making money since then, in varying amounts. I guess that puts me in the 5%. Sorry for the rant. Maybe Hershey will show up and provide some clarity and coherence to this thread. //End OT Rant//
What you failed to see when you were learning this craft as that like anything you need to have self knowledge before you can trade. You need to ask yourself, what are my strengths, weaknesses? What am I good at? When you know these things you can start experimenting with different approaches and time frames. You wouldn't believe how different most successful traders are in their approach. I have met equity scalpers, spreaders, option scalpers, position traders, long/short position traders, momentum swing traders etc etc. LOL you get the point...find something that works for you!!!!
You seem to miss the point on chop and random trading. If someone goes long for no reason, and you fade the trade, some times that person wins and you lose, and sometime he loses and you win. However, you both are affected by slippage and commissions so the strategy will not work. Or let's give another example, a trader does not use stops and adds to losers, but has a high win %. He or she makes money for a year, by that time you have blown out your account trying to fade them. Then one day a black swan comes along and wipes out the account, so you both lose. However, it's easier to design a winning system. You can design a system that has a 25% win rate but will ride long trends which is called a trend following system. Or you design a winning system with over a 50% win rate that does not trade noise
You are absolutely right. I should have stated that I found what works FOR ME. But my biggest mistake was following "conventional wisdom" taught by people that won't publish track records. If I thought for myself from the beginning it wouldn't have taken me so long to become profitable. Hope all is well btw.
"That" has the potential to work only if you fade the traders who have large capital losses per trade, not the ones who generate a lot of commissions from excessive trading. :eek:
Failed traders don't last long in the info business, because their info sucks like their trading did. Capiche'? Nobody posts track records because making $150,000 per year with two losing months and ten profitable months (for example) won't measure up to the "never-lose" crowd who are all self-proclaimed millionaires and playboys inside public message boards and twits. "Momentum" in ES means a $250 range in three hours... and $1,000 CL range in ten minutes. There is no standard measure for "momentum" baggerlord, I'm not dissing you or yours by any means. We know each other well enough to know better than that. I am telling you I don't know any traders who sustain 1/1 ratios and succeed over time. Perhaps you'll be the first that I personally know. I'm also saying if your trades make it to +1, most all of those will continue on to +1.5 of risk. So why not take that little bit extra which is there already, and give yourself a padded edge?