No, I was not attacking you and if it came across that way, I apologise. You put up a chart implying that the trades were plain to see. I simply pointed out that it is easy to annotate and explain after the fact, as Al Brooks famously does. The commonality in Brooks method, Fibonacci, etc etc is that not one book that I have come across tells you what the success rate of any entry is. Now if the author actually trades the system, s/he should have the statistics to support the claim, so why not? In Brooks first book, he pointed to a higher low and said that was a good entry. On that same chart there was a prior higher low that he ignored. Why? It is easy to say this H1 is a good entry, that H2 is a great entry after the fact. Well, why was that H1 before the great H2 entry not a good entry? And if you trade say the ES and you take the H1 through H4 entries and all fail, with a 2 point stop you are now 8 points in the hole, excluding commissions, and need to make that back. Excluding commissions, if an entry fails 90% of the time, you need to make 9R to break even. If that same entry fails 60% of the time, you only need to make 1.5R to break even. If it fails 30% of the time, you break even with about 0.43R. As you can see the swing is huge, which is why I bother with it all. Peace my friend, and may we all find success.
The only reason this discussion is happening here is that Mav posted his rationale for today's trading (edit: or lack of rather) and shopster had a different perspective, which begged the questions I asked. So this discussion, drawn out though it may be, has its roots in this thread. I will take your word that he is a decent chap, and look forward to enjoying his contributions on ET.
good man,you sound intelligent and your questions were valid, just don't need another 12 page pissing match to cover the weekend, he will explain it
This Combine thing is pretty cool. You could really find out who can trade or at least has potential. Brilliant. I think I am gonna add this to my bucket list. 10. Start an equity trading Combine called TopDawgTrader.
If you are a pro trader, the Combine has little to no value. You wouldn't find Tom Brady in a NFL Combine would ya? You think the Combine is a waste of time?
I see where you are coming from. I agree. It's a yes and no. No, it could show who can trade and who cannot. Yes, it could be a ruse for a sandbagger. So, it could be both at the same time. Not mutually exclusive. Combine. What a brilliant concept. Lol. I am not thrilled about it. I would only do this for money. No pay, no way. Lol.
Lol. I know. Popcorn... ***munch***munch***munch***..... P.S. I would really like to see Michael Patak do the Combine. ***munch***munch***munch***.....