I only know that, before sending it to my brokers again, my money stayed in bank account is always real.
Hey spike, Continue like you are doing. Never start searching for "the Trend" or you will end up on ET's scrap heap like so many other sorrowly afflicted hopeful. Be good, nononsense
I tried the 1's and 0's thing on the variables of the market a while back. All the combinations and permutations of them gave me 8 possibilities. Low and behold they all exist and, furthermore they occur in a specific smooth time sequence (barring external market disruptions.) How nice. The maths of it answer three impotant questions too. They are: 1. Where are you in the cycle? 2. what is next in the cycle? 3. and how fast is the cycle progressing? Assigning the 1's and 0's to the three variables was easy. The trickiest part was discovering that they sequenced. I had to discover the relative importance of the variables first. Learning that the sequence was a countdown was just a mild surprise. This occurred at a time when relays and vaccuum tubes were what computers were made of. We used card decks with holes in them to program so the 1's and 0's were always there in piles of punched holes for sweeping up at the end of the day. Getting to see the variables of the market as one condition or the other is not easily done today because everyone is so lazy from the conveniences available. Probably only a few people can understand my comments nowadays.
OK Grob109. I know and recognize ur stuff is one of excellence and I've been trying to fill in the holes that I cannot recognize. I recognize ur means of transference and thus would like to ask a few Q's. Conceptually, I can see the tip of what is on the table and recognize that there is a vastness to some degree. What I lack is recognizing my own weaknesses (ie, deciphering that I am learning things incorrectly). I was educated in electrical engineering and a smidgen of stochastics at the private institution where the Manhattan project took place, so the lingo is still somewhat fresh since I only recently graduated (ie. Laplace transforms, fourier transforms, gating, etc...). You may be glad to know the lab devices from the Manhattan project still sit in the displays of some the lecture rooms. The fallout shelter was and is still kind of scary when I walk thru the halls to the various labs/classes. OT there. One and two, I understand, 3 however appears to be trickier. Can you elaborate? I would presume that 3 is volume related but my limited scope would lead me to believe that this is a derivative item, more volume per unit of time indicates quicker progress. Is this correct? Also you mention disruptions, are these disruptions categorizeable? I don't consider myself to be lazy and would like to get the job done. I am as new as it gets 13 days in the market, and any guidance would be very much appreciated.
It is interesting how many ways the 0 ' and 1 of binary splits can enter into trading. Leo Goodman is the king of such splits to me in statistics and his ' ' movements and comovements between m dependent series" ( with grunfield) I find the most helpful statistical paper on trading as it generalizes the splits to multivariate and correlated series. I once worked with a consultant who had written some of the seminal papers on turning points, and asked him to develop some statistical methods to predict markets and he chose Logit Regressions as his approach, ( a good book on this is Logit Modeling by alfred demaris in the sage university series). For my sins, I occasionaly play with op amp circuits and find that the myriad combinations of saturated and off there with positive and negative feedbak always inspire me to come up with a good predictive relations, e..g that between oil and gold . profturf
Fantastic Jack! So I will finally be able to throw that "Trend" crap into the garbage can and start making money. Do I still have to apply MM with this? Thx again, nononsense
Maybe this helps ..... - Spydertrader <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=705941>