On the matter of prediction, your post is inconsistent with your regular and unnecessarily long-wided commentary in NoDoji's thread. That's where you're protected because two of my posts directed at you were deleted by the moderator. Can you not even see the inconsistency of your own comments here with your comments in that other thread? (Hint: Going with the flow is all about reacting and following rather than predicting. Similarly, your admirable penchant for trading with the trend is not about predicting as much as it is about reacting and following. Do you see how that works?) The emperor had better check his wardrobe. P.S. I'm not being negative. Merely cognizant of limitations regarding the ability to predict the future with any specificity, especially as it relates to market levels and turns in direction. Perhaps "realistic" would be more descriptive.
I'm not a mathematician; my degree was in economics. But lets look at the market from a problem solving stance. Assume you are going to play one market. Assume again that this is a market offering a lot of points daily. Assume too that you are going to daytrade it. Let that market be NG because it fits those requirements. Two things. If you are not in the market you cannot take any points. If you are in sometimes but you do not have a tested methodology, you will likely be taking net losses on whatever trading you do This brings you to a summation. If you are not in the market because you spend time waiting and if when you are in you are likely making net losses then the 2 together explain why most amateurs fail - the so-called 95% of individual traders who fail. Time explains this equation. Time not used plus time misused equals all of the time when the sequential opportunities of money making in a market are being missed, in the daily journey from the open to the close.