Mathematically Predicting the Future?

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by MarkBrown, Oct 27, 2007.

  1. MarkBrown


    i would agree with you and add that if we can get to the stage of profitability and consistency then we can most likely continue to get better at it. eventually if the conditions were right, like keeping secret and non overuse we may be able to achieve near perfection one day. mb
    #11     Oct 27, 2007
  2. Mark,

    Isn't the title of your thread the objective of your original X-File Project...maybe 10 years ago? Reading your introductory post I remember something about that @ your web page .... Am I wrong?
    #12     Oct 28, 2007
  3. fatrat


    You have some fundamental misunderstanding of what it is mathematics are doing in the world of trading.

    Trading and market outcomes are random variables. All individuals are doing is modeling randomless and assessing likelihood of a certain outcome. They're not saying that the outcome can't happen in a manner they don't expect.

    There can never be perfect when the outcomes are genuinely random. And you're right -- if PhDs in science go to Wall St., we do become a trading society. But trading societies are a function of economics. As it stands, the opportunity cost of being an engineer in Silicon Valley is quite low compared to being a successful trader on Wall St. The situation is different in China and India for the vast majority of engineers. The growth and having equity in companies does more for them there than our economy does for us here.
    #13     Oct 28, 2007
  4. You can't mathematically predict the stock market. It's human psychology in a number game, there's no math involved. The game is as simple as a fund manager going "get me out at any price" when a company misses earnings and me seeing a short setup at 9:32 where I'm scalping his panic. Some other fund manager is accumulating into the panic, and then he starts buying it up and the stock now reverses sharply and shorts get squeezed.

    Why predict? Why not just try to be right 7 out of 10 times or 5 out of 10 times with larger winners and be happy to make money?
    #14     Oct 28, 2007
  5. MarkBrown


    if you look at card counting it involves math? if you are right 7 out of 10 times did you pull that out of your a$$? are you such a good gambler that you can be right 7 out of 10 times? in fact didn't you just use math to come up with the 7 out of 10?

    please explain to me how you trade and don't use math. mb
    #15     Oct 28, 2007
  6. Patterned and/or cyclical market activities can be measured and utilized for profitable automated trade systems. I have two profitable systems that I use and I have been watching a new system yes it can be done and is a great way to trade.
    #16     Oct 28, 2007
  7. Cesko


    I use math too. I am skilled enough to recognize higher number from lower number. If sell number is higher then buy number I am :) if sell number is lower than buy number I look like this :confused: :( .
    How do I know how much I lost or made??? Little more complicated, I have to multiply the difference between sell and buy number by 5 (I trade YM).

    Yes You do need math skill to trade. Now imagine how much money I could be making if I had Phdr. in math.
    #17     Oct 28, 2007
  8. MarkBrown


    wow you been on this forum longer than me keep talking - i love all that math talk! :D
    #18     Oct 28, 2007
  9. Cesko


    OK. I do not care about the math when trading. Doing 1-2 trades a day, 90% are profitable. Despite being profitable, I consider myself to be a bad trader because of my inability to capitalize on winning trades. Making a shitload of $$$$ in financial markets has nothing to do with math.
    #19     Oct 28, 2007
  10. nidarian


    All this is good, but i dont understand why you want to see trade outputs so you can run them on your software, when mark already has the performance for what he is doing?

    What is your goal here? Just to show you can run the performance to everyone?
    #20     Oct 28, 2007