Mathematical Model of the NFL (26 October 2007):

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by AynRandFan, Oct 26, 2007.

  1. For those of you who are interested, my new numbers, picks, and predictions for the week's upcoming NFL (and NCAA) games are up... I'm posting them at:

    For those of you who haven't yet seen what I'm doing here, I'm attemting to prove that wagering on sports IS a form of value investing, if it is actually approached AS investing. Wagering on sports is really about "finding value" in the offered wagers. Efficiency mis-matches on the field need to be discovered, first, and these, then, in turn, need to be matched-up with inefficiencies in the point spread(s) offered. Each week, there are only a small handful of wagers that are actually mis-priced (undervalued), and these few cases are what I search for. The math underlying this is my own, and I'm not fully ready to reveal the underlying concepts. I do believe that I'm the only one attempting this with football -- I've found 2 particularly valueable stats (of my own creation) which seem to have enormous predictive value in determining the outcome of football games, particularly when combined with the idea of adding points given by the spread. These two statistics of mine don't seem to be available anywhere else, and the thought has ocurred to me that I ought to patent them.

    I may very well do just exactly that.

    So, if this is the sort of thing that interests you, have a look.

    Thanks to EliteTrader for letting me post this kind of stuff -- it is long conceptual stretch to consider this kind of thing to be "investing," but rest assured, I KNOW that it is investing, and this is essentially my attempt to prove it.

    Yeah, I'm a geek, alright.

    No question about that.


    I posted a +134% gain within 9 days of starting the blog. Last weekend turned-out to be... not so good. Wild swings are probably inevitable. I don't advise anybody to wager on anything; I do this for fun. I simply like to mathematically model stuff.

    I live in a world of numbers in my head. I'm weird, as I said. I will occasionally close my eyes when I'm talking to you, and drift-off into some set of numbers floating around in the back of my head.

    As I said, I'm WEIRD.

    Deal with it.

    If the idea of football being mathematically modeled is your cup of tea, you're welcome to have a look.

    If not, that's cool too.

    We all have our own weirdness -- mine probably isn't yours, but hey... yours probably isn't mine, either.

    It's all cool in the end.
  2. sim03


    Interesting stuff, although you can safely bet that you are not the only one doing this... applying rigorous numerical and statistical methods to the process of systematically betting on football games, as a strategic investment. :cool:

    Incidentally, are you familiar with / have you studied a statistical model of the NFL, published in the NY Times (of all places) for a number of years in the 1990s and early 2000s, every week during the season?