Thank you for bringing that up! Wasn't patient and confident enough to hold through while thinking HOD is above me....
I guess I will get yelled at by Sifu today. I shorted at the opening of todayâs market⦠While $TRIN is trading at around 0.5⦠But considering itâs a gap play + all the short signals, so it should be OK to play a short at the opening, right? Market opened more than 100 points up due to the improved job report. Market has been up for 3 days. Then market formed a D/T at the opening. It sent me a short signal to fill the gap. That 100 point Gap looked so damn attractive! So the first time in my life, I took an aggressive gap fill play. Then the D/T quickly formed a D/B, I was stopped out for a 16 points loss. Reentered, stopped again at a small loss. Then I took a breakout long position, out right away since I realized that the ISM report was released at 7:00 and Obamaâs speech is right around 7:00 too⦠Was a bit depressed by the 2 losing gap play trades. Then took a deep breathe and told myself to treat every trade as an individual trade. Only stupid people carry emotion to the next transaction. After the ISM number was released. The sell off began. On 2 min chart, a pause bar followed by a large red candle. It sent the short signal. Also the 10450 area was the Aug 18 resistant level. TRADE A: Short, 1) on 60 min chart, 2nd leg move at the resistance zone 10450. 2)5 min chart a large red candle sell off from the resistant level, 2 min chart a pause bar after a large reversal candle, also the topping tail broke the resistant level. 3) Possible a gap fill. 4) Market has been bullish for 3 days, it could be set for a retrace. 5) Market has finished a 2 wave move since 8/31. All these show a pullback might happen here even though overall we are still in a bullish trend on large time frame. $TRIN traded at 0.5. This âsmall time frame bearishâ trade worked really well, I was patient and took profit at the 2nd wave. Since we were still in a overall bullish trend, I didnât want to wait until the 3rd wave happens. Besides the end of the 2nd push landed at where the 50% retrace of the entire move, and the 50% of the Gap, measured move down, plus itâs the R2 Pivot Level. Total 47 points for one trade. Very aggressive trade, but not bad considering Risk :reward and efficiency. After an aggressive trade, itâs difficult to switch to the long side. Even though I saw some great long signals. But with all the choppiness and the sharp sell off at the first 2 hours. I just donât have any confidence to enter a long position plus itâs the Friday before long weekend. Todayâs PnL: $143, 5 trades, 60% winrate Weekly recap: PnL: $106.4 Avg trades per day:5 Winrate: 64% Have a great long weekend, everyone! Hopefully next week, market started to back to normal after summer vacation, less chop, chop... I might think of trying some real time trades!
Good job! I would have done similar. The ES also made a M top formation with 1100 being a longer time-frame big resistance. (But it did go to around 1104). The third day of a bullish run since Wednesday, it's likely to sell off a bit at the high. This is why we need to look at the context in price action... not just look at the TRIN value itself. Yes it was bullish, but a bulk of the run was done on Wed, and yesterday. The bulls cannot run forever. I would expect today being a bit of a range after the 5:30 am shoot-up. But the bulls have not retired though. So good opps to long existed aroung 8:00 am or so.
Ha Ha Matcha, we have a great Sifu. He won't yell at us, would he? "...told myself to treat every trade as an individual trade..." ---This is the best of your traits that I admire a lot. I am convinced that you are deemed to succeed in this business. Your 47 points trade was fantastic. You did excellent for pulling the trigger at the right time. I reacted a lot slower waited till the pullback for the 3rd leg. I captured only 2.5 ES points. For the rest of the day, I got chopped a few times and captured a bit of the last leg of the uptrend at the close. My PnL was -2.00 points for the day. I, too am waiting for the market to get back to normal after the Labor Day as Sifu had also mentioned that the "big" boys will be back from their summer vacation. I wish you the very best for your real time trades. You can do it !!!!! Go Matcha !!!!! Wish everyone has a great long Labor Day weekend!!!! --po
Market wasnât nice to me on my first live trading day :-(. After the early morning two stage run, I got whipped around like a fool by todayâs mini range bound that lasted almost 4.5 hours. I took all the false break out and break down signals. Set up some larger stopsâ¦. First trade was a long at a Pivot point, D/B at the opening to fill the gap. Stopped out. 2nd trade was TRADE A. Break down short+ failed break out pattern TRADE A: short, watched 40pt profits turned into 8 Pts. It was painful. Then market started to choppy. I took short signals at the upper range, got stopped out. Then I took all the break out signals, stopped out. Took way too many trades around the area. I kept thinking the price would âgoâ after the range. But it was stuck there for more than 4 hours. Took 2 false breakout and breakdown trades with large stops, because my intention was not want to get stopped out by the whipsawsâ¦But market stopped me out regardless⦠TRADE B: short, only 11pts, bailed after seeing long bottom tails. Realized I overtraded at 12:00. Pressed wrong buttons again on Matrix cost me more trades. Todayâs PnL: $-246, 11 trades, 18%winrate Made my broker a happy Monday today :-( PS: Got to go back to SIM if this weekâs performance comes awful
Ended the day negative. Gave back all the gains at the late session. Got killed by too many trades with tight stops and not take profit at the realistic level. TRADE A: long. A continuation bull move at the Pivot level. Coninuation patter formed at 2 min chart. But stopped out at b/e. Re-enter at the long bottoming tail bar. Out too quickly. Only 13Pts Next trade was a continuation breakout play. Bet on the momentum move. The momentum never happened so out with a small loss. TRADE B: Failed D/B pullback + D/T(showing lots of sellers). Out again too quickly since I was still very bullish at that moment. Only 19 Pts The next few trades were sending all the gains back to the market ;-( Too eager to make profits, didnât count the pushes and move. Was thinking about shorting the market at a strong 3 leg move up. TRADE C: Short. Profit turned into loss Ran out of bullets again. Todayâs PnL: -$16.60, 9 Trades, 33% winrate
Hi Matcha, You can do it. Don't let this border you. Remember this is a part of trading. I have confidence in you. You can do it! --po
Hi Matcha, I notice one thing that you seemed to trade a bit more than your average # of trades that you did the previous week. May be try to keep the number of trades in check. I went back to look at my record in the past few months, all my big down days were all associated with over-trading. --po
Thank you, PO for encourgement I don't expect a better result in Live to start. But I do have to work on taking less trades....