You probably need to experiment with different settings to find what suit you. (That's why progressing in trading skills is time-consuming.) The chart that I showed was a LINE BREAK chart (not range bar chart), set for 3 LB and 3 minutes. Start with that. Tune up or down to see how the charts show.
Gave back 15 points at the end of the sessionâ¦Gave back the great winrate ratio and low # of tradesâ¦. I was over confident and got a little greedy after being up $290. ---The undisciplined behavior after winning. Market has been slowly up overnight. After gap up open, I went long but I was stopped out after the bad housing data news. Market then generate a sell signal and broke the consolidation pattern. This time, I joined the sell-off. Took profit at S1 level and it was also the measured move down. TRADE A: short, 35 points Market then tested YTDâs low twice and didnât succeed. Made 2 scratched long trades after the trend reversal. I then headed to bed taking a nap. Trade B: Long,12 pts. Trade C: Re-enter, price broke out previous pivot high and itâs also a first leg pullback. Even though I did a measured move, I took profit at around PPT level. 22 Pts. I was a bit happy about my PnL and winrate. I thought about quit the day. Butâ¦. At the last half and hour, I was greedy and undisciplined. I feel very confident; I âanticipatedâ the reversal at 12:30. Then I said to myself. Took one more trade! I can probably reach $400 profit day. I decided to wait for a pullback on 2min chart then go short. I went in. Stopped out, then I switched to long. Stopped out, Went long again with a âgenerousâstop. I was whipsawed. Then I finally called it a day⦠Todayâs PnLâ $208.6, 11Trades, 45%winrate
Matcha You did well Grasshopper, shotguns sure can make a mess of things, can't they? Stick with the sniper rifle! Speculators accept the risks of others, Gamblers create risk situations. <*)))><
Hi Matcha, I think you did really well today in the PnL. I am more disciplined today. Having only 8 trades, made 3.25 points on ES. I had one SHORT trade that I lose right at your Trade B. You did the right thing to go long. Do you remember why you took that long trade? I still no sure why I went the opposite. May be I am thinking the down movement from around 10 am PT will continue. I looked at the 1 min and 2 min stochastic, they were O/B and I decided to go SHORT. But I should have paid attention to the 5 min stochastic which has already formed a round bottom and already coming out from the O/S area. Looking at today's $TRIN, it has been between 0.75 and 1.50 for most part of the day. I considered it mostly a range bound day. The stochastic gave pretty good signals in this type of environment. Taking a nap - I can see that a minor drawback of trading from the Pacific Time zone, you have to get up quite early (before 6:30 am!) to trade. But then, it's a plus that you can get off "work" early when other people are still working. Hope tomorrow you will hit that $400 mark! --po
Smart, sis. Very educational! I can see another strategy you are playing here. You are always in control even with strong opponent. But your intention was hidden and subtle. Looks like you are flexible and accept a "cheap date". But you get more than a bowl of soup. You proposal shows that. The strong opponent might think he didn't lose for sea food dinner. But he didn't win either. Well played! I learned! Always "hide the intention". "Be in control".
Sorry, a bit misunderstanding. I see the mirror trick everyday. The level/depth of the consolidation equals to length of the further falling/rallying. Using this technique with bar analyis with +1000/1000 Tick reading together can be a great place to take profit. Besides money, trading is fascination to me. The seeking for probability, the reading and analysis on the context, the logic, the variable changes, the "anticipation", the reaction towards varible change makes trading more like art. I don't gamble. But one day I would want to learn to play poker, on video game first.
You did great too! I am not sure if my anaysis is correct on the trade B, but here are what i was thinking. Trade B: 5 min is the center of the universe #1. trend has reversed at 8am Pst.(price couldn't penetrate YTD low more deeply, created a double bottom with YTD's low, so today could rebound from here. Plus we had a more than 200pt range down day last friday. #2, after revesal, price made 2 leg move to 200 EMA. Then come back to 50% Fib of the entire move. -Bullish #3. that50% retrace is 10059-YTD;s close. by looking at the left side, i saw some demand here. -see the consolidation pattern? beween 8:30-9:30. So I would be aware of this level is can be a buy entry. #4:Stocastic on 5 min, 11:00, did you see a double bottom div with the price? THen did you see a slightly a higher low on stochastic? you can also view this as a 3 hook shape. This made the 3rd hook(higher low) a high chance of success. #5: more importanly, look at 2 min chart, price finished the 3 leg down move.(10:00-11:00) So it increases the probablity of going long at YTD's close level. Let me know if you need me to mark them on the chart for you The flaw of the the trade is taking profit too soon. I didn't expect the price will rally to 100% Fib exenstion, also the measured move could play out that well. But I went back in when price break the revious pivot high. So I didnt miss the entire move that much... The good thing about trading west coast time is you can have an actual fullime job and trade the first hour. But it can be very exhausted to do if your job requires fully attention and 10 hours a day... Not to mention, stress... Always very sleepy and tired everymonday. Because weekend, I slept late, so I couldnt wake up at 6:00am on Monday with 100% conscious...
Yes! Matcha .. in "Trading" .. we must be 100% "Be in control" & "hide the intention"... that's how we become good traders/warriors..it's easy to do that in trading. But when it comes to the "affairs of the heart" .. even the great warriors of the world will find its hard to be in control.. That's life lol. Trade well & take care!
Hi Matcha, Thank you very much for your reply and the excellent thorough analysis. It is very clear to me now on your Trade B. Excellent background observation in #1 ~ #3. Your observation #4 and #5 was right on the money. I totally missed the stochastic/price divergence at 11:00 pt. Now I can see that after you mentioned it. I like the way you described the 3 rising hooks that brought to the success. I also see your Trade C's winning was an excellent continuation of Trade B after the sideways consolidation. I really like the way you threaded through the whole sequence of events to come up with your entries. You did have the BIG picture all clearly mapped out. A+ analysis!!!!! Now I owe you my future success to your wonderful sharing of ideas... You deserve a pat on your shoulder --po