It's the big difference between beginner and pros. Beginners had difficulty to identify trending day and range days. big range trending days and one way trending days. Just like Bolimomo and Athlonmank8 suggested we should look at a bigger picture. Overall trend. I know you have been looking at 15min chart. I just added mine this week. I hope experience and looking at the larger time frame can solve the problem soon. Also, identify the bottoms/tops are the keys. If we can confidently identify the bottoms and tops without too much doubt, we could have ride the trend yesterday like those pros. And party hard this weekend. It takes time I guess. Yesterday is a great lesson. One direction trending day will come again, we just need to nail it next time. if not, 3rd time or 4th time.
I really admire your story, your success and hardmanship. You have what it takes to be a successful trader and business woman! I also admire and respect someone who started from "0", "build a home with empty hands" type. I have never been a huge fan with trust fund babies. Most of them are pathetic and don't now how to appreciate! I have just tasted how brutal the reality is. It makes me realized I have wasted so much time and money in my life. Now I had to work extra hard to pursue my goals. My first priority is not going to be playing and shopping although fashion has always been my life... Now trading is also my life To make avg$100 a day consistently by the end of the year was my this year's goal-in live account. If I could achieve this goal, I can definitely live with that for now. I do have $10K for trading YM only. You are funny about target and macy's. hehe. Not too favor of macy's, hehe. My goal in sim is to achieve more than 50% win rate, profitable 4 weeks in a row, trade with eyes closed, nail 100points a week then I can go live. I am prepared to take 50% discount of the above result in live account. If it's worse than that, I am going back to sim.
Market basically handed out money to us yesterday. I turned down... you brought a point about little horizontal over-head resistance. I saw something differently, I saw a 6/29 sell off and the gap. so I hesitated to stay with the trend. Was the sell off not that important when the bull trend is so strong? Does that mean the 6/29 gap down and sell off was just the one day reaction to the news and no need to worry about yesterday?Or can I anticipate that once the gap is filled, there might be a big retrace down anytime soon? Which could be tomorrow or the day after tomorrow? in ES, I think it's the 1070level. About timing the market, I haven't got on that part yet. the legandery Jesse Livermore was an expert on that... Oh, believe me. I would love to trade only 1-3 trades per day. Don't know why it's that difficult to me. I started to add 15 min chart. You are making same great point as Bolimom always does. 4hr and daily level could be a very large time frame to me. let me go back and study the method you have mentioned. I usded to trade on tick chart, 100tick and 300 tick. I like the smoothness on the tick chart. but I got so many stopped out on tick charts. Plus I was reading Al's book since June. so I switched to min chart ever since. Thank you again for your inputs. Please always give me some feedbacks!
March was +$200, but avg trades per day 20. it was not right. I was trading on tick chart and trading with 1 and 2 contracts. April was +300, avg trades per day 25, still not right too. Early May was a blow out, -3800, 5/6 (flash crash) I was down almost $4000. Luckily in SIM. Mid May, I felt like I had a methodology in place, I had patterns I like to trade, then I started my journal. In june, I started to feel like I get something right. Over trading stopped me to go live. Fear of blowing stopped me too...
ha, i am going to start calling you "sifu". fun! OMG, Nodoji must be laughing. Thank you for such great compliment. I am no where near as good as NoDoji. Not only 10% of her when she just starting out... She is special... She is born to be a trader. Her throughness, dedication, amazing memory, intuition and perception are most of people don't have. I am just a ordinary grasshopper who can barely walk now.... It might take me ages to get Nodoji's level...
Hi, PO. Just curious, yesterday when you traded, Have you looked at 15 min chart, 30 min chart and 60 min chart at all? Have you read Boli and Algo's posts here? I put lots of thoughts on to it. Now I am staring at 60min, 30min 15 min chart. And I am also reading Marcel's book about Time Frames. I think my over trading and getting out trade too soon is highly related to ignore larger time frame-the big picture. If you look at 15 min chart yesterday, there is no reason we should get out of the trade, even we are out the trade, we should continue to go long, not short. The only thing to hold me back not to go long is the 6/29 sell off, but I should still continue go long because the bull was so strong. On page 90, he specified that large time frame can keep you out of over trading. Then he gave an example of using moving average on both time frame to confirm the trade. If moving average crossed 60 min chart to send long signal, on 5 min chart, you should only go long and look for moving average crosss on 5 min chart. Exit at another MA cross. For sure there are a lot details we need to look for while trading. Now I am staring at the historical chart, this approach works extremely well in trending days. Range days can be a little tricky though.
Yes, LMAO! I made some hay when the sun was shining and now I'm just your average trader Seriously, I sized down after May flash crash, just got scared of too much leverage when that kind of crap can happen so quickly.
I like you as if you were my daughter. But don't turn me into a Mom! I am a guy! LOL Just "Boli" will do if you want to speed things up.
You should. Have both $TRIN and $TICK. They are cousins. Related. Sort of. Though $TRIN is not as good as it used to be from my observations. When $TRIN < 0.7 persistently, especially lower than 0.5... only do long trades. When $TRIN > 2.0 persistenly... only do short trades. If $TRIN is in between 0.7 and 2.0... it can be range bound or choppy. Play both long and short as warranted. For $TICK: observe if it spends most of the time above zero (bullish) or below zero (bearish). Trade accordingly. $TICK >1000 (extreme bull) and $TICK < -800 (extreme bear) cannot be sustained. Beware of possible/probable reversal - depending on where in the wave cycle the price is. (First wave - impulse leads the price trend. Third wave or Fourth wave - trend is likely ending with a blow-off top or blow-off bottom).