Pivot point trade played well today again. Price stays at pivot point level quite some time, Volume is decent after 7:00PST. So today is qualified for a trend/wide range days. There are definitely high probability trading areas where Pivot points, EMA, Double T/B, Pull back, momentum, all meet together. I marked all the area I should take these trades in blue box. All the trades are within trend pullback trades. I took a few of them today. The dashed lines are mid point. Dotty lines are floor pivot points. Trade A: this was a foolish trade, turned out to be scratched one. Trade B: Short. Price action violates the S1 level the pull back, then penetrated it again. Price also violated the EMA first time on 5 min chart then formed a up tail candle bar. Trend line was down, 20 EMA and 100 EMA are further apart-very bearish. Enter: 10158 Exit: 10134 24Pts Trade C: Moving average cross, price violated the S1 level, bearish bar, Bearish trend first pullback.. But I was stopped out only for 10 pts profits. Then I went back in at micro-trend pullback, I took a too quick a profits. The totally trade I only get 17 Pts. Enter: 10163 Exit: 10153 10 Pts Reenter: 7 pts Totally 17 Pts Trade D: Pullback on 3rd wave. Enter: 10123 Exit: 10102 21pts Todayâs PnL: +$191 10 trades, 50% win rate. Still losing profits on those low probability bad tradesâ¦
Hi Matcha, Let's keep telling ourselves "loud and clear" to stop trading those L-O-W probability B-A-D trades. I did the same today loosing 2 countertrend trades which I shouldn't have made. But recouped the loss later in the afternoon following the rule to go only with those with-trend-trades after w-a-i-t-i-n-g for a pullback. I have a couple of trades similar to yours (Trade C and D). I think we did good trading those high probability setups. Good trading tomorrow! And remember NO countertrend low probability trades. --po
I know!! Stop counter-trend trading. Aiming for big profit with trend trading! Untill we can trade well with trend trading, we can test counter-trend trades and reversal trades. Counter-trend trades are great scalper trades. For new traders, its very difficult to "switch gears"- change the mindset fast enough get out and to be the other side of the trade, by the time I realized counter-trend is over, I was stopped out with a loss, then I wanted to get back in with trend. Guess what? it's too late. It's not worth it to give up good trend trades... It's just me... Reversal trades are great, but not for me either. Not now. No.1 I have hard time define top and bottoms. No.2 Reversal trades can lead to be stopped out a few times, I don't have that type of risk tolerance and capital at this point. Plus no instant gratification can discourage my follow up trades. No. 3, the main objective to take reversal trade is to buy at "wholesale" price, sell at "high end retail" price, get juicy profit. I have to be patient enough to stay with the trend all way through at least 2 waves or 3 waves, at this point, I don't have that type of patience with my only one contract... See, I am fully aware of what type of trades I need to take. What type of trades to stay away. But I just make all the foolish mistakes from time to time. That's why I need to stay in SIM for a while... Hopefully I can get pass the discpline thing soon. It's OK to make mistakes, PO! We just learn from them! Winners are great! But losers can be the best! How many contracts are you trading now? Is ES the only market you are intra-day trading now?
Hi Matcha, Well said regarding the importance of the with-trend trading practice. Both Dr. Al Brooks and Marcel Link are big proponents on trading with the trend. Dr. Brooks' Trading Guideline #28 (pg. 384) - stop trading countertrend scalps and #29 - start trading With Trend pullbacks. Marcel Link's point #1 (pg 227) to becoming a "HIGH Probability Trader" - Use multiple time frames, #2 - Trade with the trend, #3 - Wait for pullbacks. On page 226, point #4 - to becoming a "LOW Probability Trader" - Trading against the trend, #2 - Trading choppy markets, #9 - Overtrading, #11 - Trading randomly, #14 - Chasing markets. You are correct that it is okay to make mistakes. I learned from them too. I am glad that I do SIM trading also. When I first started intra-day trading, I thought trading LIVE was the way to learn, but it has proven to be very costly especially when I was trying new strategies. Now I do both and alternate between LIVE and SIM. This week I am doing SIM only - trying out a few new setups and train myself to be skillful in spotting the setups and to perform the proper execution of the trades. I also go back to SIM trading when I have a loosing streak. It is kind of playing major league and go back to the training camp at times to reinforce myself. For live trading, I trade mostly 1 contract. For SIM trading, I do varied the # of contracts to test different scenarios. I only day trade the ES-mini. I try to limit the number of trades to a low number to say, below 5 each day, but I have been doing about 6 to 8 trades on average, sometimes a bit too many (not good to overtrade!) It has been nice exchanging ideas with you, someone who is very SMART, hardworking and are willing to share the experience. It makes trading more interesting! Thank you very much for taking the time to post your journal and to respond to messages. Keep up the spirit! You absolutely have the right approach to becoming a successful trader! --po
A pretty wild day today. Took 2 great trades this morning, I was up almost $250 before 8:00am PST. Thought about call it a day, but then I decided to continue to practice. So I took more trades...Before 9:00, I was still up over +$250. Last 2 hour sessions, I waited and waited on a prefect set up-Trade C, I was so proud of myself that I anticipated the gigantic Failed Bull Flag. Trade C could have worked, but I forgot one thing, 12:30 reversal. The 12:30 reversal ran my stop. Then foolish me, I continued to short-twice, with 10 point stop o each trades. These 2 trades hurt my daily profits. I ended up +200 for the day⦠The 12:30 reversal sometimes played out very well, sometimes it just go mad! I need to be extra careful going forward. TRADE A: a great set up. Entry: 10090 Exit:10069 21Pts TRADE B: Entry: 10063 Exit: 10028 35 Pts TRADE C: Thatâs the trade âcouldâ have worked. But I was stopped out. Then went back in twice to continue short which hurt my daily profit. Lost 22 points on the 2 trades. Entry: 10105 Exit: 10097 8Pts The blue circle is the area worth mentioning and documenting today. I convinced myself to stay away and waited for the breakout pullback trade in either direction which saved me a lot of troubles. Around 11am PST, price formed a bear flag with slightly touching EMA. A month ago, if I had seen this pattern, I would have taken the trade as a pullback +break HOD trade. And traded like mad lady of it didn't work! But with more screen time, I think I become a bit more sensitive and pay attention to more context of the market. I prefer to wait, the reasons are: Strong PP level ahead of me. Could do a quick scalp trade, but really not worth it. 3 more waves already took place (extended move), When price first made to the HOD, it formed a long top tail, and then quickly came down, meaning not too many buyers are interested at this level(10141). Then yesterday at this level there are lots of sellers. So I didnât take the trade, I waited. I told myself that either way the price is heading to, I will take the break out pull back trade. After the market consolidated for almost 1.5 hours, it came down ran buyerâs stops at Yesterdayâs Close(10099), then slightly rallied.(some sellers took profits), Then sold off again, I went in. But the thing is, I was a bit too confident that at least the price would go down to the next pivot level(10057) with measured move. But what I didnât anticipate today is the 12:30 reversal and the 50% fib level of the previous swing. 12:30 market suddenly reversed and rallied at 10080 and that was also the 50% of the FIB level and the previous support level. So I took 2 losing trades by the time I realized it⦠A bit over trade today, press the wrong button twice to generate more trades too. Todayâs PnL: +$201 14trades, 57%win rate Weekly Recap: PnL: +$446 Avg trades per day: 11 Win Rate:49% #of mistakes: 6 Cost of mistakes:-$260 Comment: No Chase, Wait for the perfect set up. Take profit quickly. Focus on loss. Protect capital. The great thing for this week is I didnât not trade on Wed. I took less counter-trend trades. Thursday and Friday, I didnât take any counter-trend trades. Most of profitable trades are those Double T/B pull back with EMA, confluent with Pivot Points, S.R level, if you know what I meant Time for âGrown Upsâ movie that comes out today! Yeh! Tomorrow I will continue to read Alâs âpull backâ Chapter, thoroughly this time!
Hey, writing the journal helps me to jog my thoughts and memories too! I can get a lot of insights from experts and a driven new trader like you too! Besides, if I don't write and "talk" to you guys here, I will start to talk to myself alone. Picture that, A crazy lady with messy hair sitting in front of computer talking to herself. Thank you for putting up with my broken english writing too! Thanks again for marked the page for me. I will read them through. I am not qualified to give you any advice. But I believe you are on the right track. You are very conservative and discretionary when comes to learning trading which is great! Our major goal for the frist and second year is to preserve capital and not go broke. Sim trading helps a lot. Especially when we treated SIM trading seriously just like Live. It doesn' mean I will get same result in Live, because I am putting real money on the line. But SIM trading builds up confidence, skillset, sense of the overall market, help analyze behavior etc. For minimize the trades, it's just my take on, I was so big on this problem a while ago. I felt like if I am thinking too much about it, then I have a lot of hesitations to take the trades even though it's a great set up. Or when I stopped out, I didn't go back in, then I missed a great trade. So minimize # of trades are not on my top priority list now. My top list is:no chase, wait for the perfections. After I can work these two out, naturally I will reduce my # of trades. Then if I am still over trading, I will look more deeply see what the problems are, probably the entry and exit are not relatively "precise", or the stops are just too narrow.... No need to say thank you, I mentioned before. I like to talk about trading. I like to share ideas, get feedbacks to help me learn. I hope new beginners who are interested in trading can learn from my post too, even though I could be a failed example. Have a greart weekend!
Hey! I think your English is fine. You write very well. I always enjoyed reading your candid remarks and your straight talking style trading journal. You are right that it is great that we can "talk" to someone with like mind and common goal here. I once heard a "crazy lady with messy hair sitting in front of the computer talking to herself" said "I think only traders understand traders." What a wise and truthful statement!!! Sometimes, I don't feel like explaining what I do to my friends and relatives. BTW, Congratulations to a winning week! Have a nice weekend! --po
Premarket volume today was light. The economic data this morning was relatively positive, but the overall attitude on the market was neutral. (I looked at overnight YM reaction and marketwatch.com, Nasdaq.com, premarket volume to score the market attitude). Then I looked at the EMA on 5 min chart, they were clustered together and mostly stay flat. So now I had a bias today on either short side or a range bound market is to be expected. If I were trading in live today, I would either do some house cleaning instead or I would log on SIM account to trade, because a range day isnât my strong suit. Since I am practicing, so I traded the whole day. My general strategy on range day was, look at the 2 min found some trend; rely on pivot point, ABC pattern is what I am looking for since its hard for me to identify the ârange(high/low)â, then take profits right away at the next S/R level. But it turned out; I am still a bit unstructured and messy even with some predefined strategies. The areas I marked were the bad trades I took. Some of them were against my initial plan. Especially, at 11:30, I âthoughtâ the price is continuing making itâs next push up even though the volume was so light. Mainly because I missed the rally up, subconsciously I convinced myself to chase the rally. I kept going long after being stopped out, Then I switched my direction and went short, it still didnât work. I finally gave up and step back⦠A few OK trades here. TRADE A: Short. Entry:10108 Exit: 10089 TRADE B: Short Entry: 10093 Exit: 10083 TRADE C Entry: 10101 Exit: 10088 TRADE D: Entry: 10101 Exit: 10090 Todayâs PnL: -$18, 14 trades, 29% win rate.