yes, but when i am trading, most times, I forget to check the bigger picture. I don't have the complete strategy I think, and I don't have a clear definition of trend/range. Without a guide direction, I am just like a car without steering wheel..
what about using EMA as direction, only trade the clearly direction of the EMA and only trade the 2nd leg of the trend. The first leg of the trend usualy will company with a flat or oposite side of the direction EMA. first pullback usually is in couter-trend direction too. you might only take 2-3 trades per week.
Hi Matcha, I think you ought not to have this feeling. Think of it the short setup should be the opposite of the long setup. I know you can do it. I think the only thing that's different is not likely the setup, but the tendency of a down market moves faster than an up market. The retracement for shorts might be shorter and swifter too. Not sure why you took a LONG position at 8:26 (trade 1). The 20 EMA was (slightly) down at that point. Even though the market wasn't in a strong downtrend at that point, it looked like you were looking for a reversal. I thought you are focusing on only with trend setups. Ditto, I often fall into that same trap - and most of the time it's too late! My trading today: - Spent most part of the morning chasing IB for their TWS problems. - Took 1 Short trade at the tail end of the downtrend, it was late getting in! Got stopped out. - Then too another 4 LONG trades during the uptrend (3+, 1-). - Ended the day with +1.25 ES points. Note: It looks like every time IB has a new release of their s/w, there's almost always something not working! --po
I don't use any indicator. Just pure price action. Being influenced greatly by AHG, but failed to master the set ups.. I was totally mad today. I overtraded and had all the mental issues. But I learned very valuable lesson: I need to adjust my strategy, and I need to find a solid method to define the current market situation. When in sim, I never find myself have problem to define the current market situation. However, when i am in real account, I find myself not clear about what is going on there. Or, I think i am aware of something, but turns out i am not. I am not sure whether it is caused by stress or, by my incomplete strategy. The more i am trading in real account, the more I get confused. Should work hard on it. By the way, Match, have you tried NQ? I think ES is good instrument for range players. Both NQ and YM has more trend day in my opion.
Matcha, There is nothing wrong with the trade that you executed today! Get it,â¦there was nothing wrong with that Long trade! However, 6 bars after your loss 0855, the chart clearly spoke to you and said: âI am now in a potential downtrend with this LL Pivotâ. Had you been mentally prepared, you would not have missed the short off the low of the up bar at 0855, or the Short off the low of the up bar at 0940, or the Short off the low of the up bar at 1005. All of these trades suffered little or no heat, as the market continued to make LLâs & LHâs in a downtrend, just as it told you, and just begging to be Shorted on each of these up bar PBâs! Lesson learned #1: You are not as yet âThinking in Probabilitiesâ. Lesson learned #2: You are not exercising a âTechnical Mental Routineâ to maintain focus on what is happening right now on your chart. Lesson learned #3: You are not as yet âTrading what you see, not what youâre thinkingâ. Execution is a learned skill set. Mentally, you allowed a single trade frazzle your winning program. You momentarily lost both your confidence and your perspective. By the way, the 3 Shorts, had they been executed, would have had you positive on the day, even if you took the last one at 1030. This is what "Series Thinking" and âThinking in Probabilitiesâ is all about. Trade what you see, not what youâre thinking. During the trading session, your focus is to âexecuteâ. Save your thinking and analyses for after market hours. This is also what Redneck is telling you when he said above; Sometimes these other traders step inâ¦.sometimes they donâtâ. The point is, you never know, but what is more important is that, âGirl, you donât need to knowâ! Your focus needs to move from its current trade-by-trade perspective, to a âSeries of trades perspectiveâ. You need to develop a mental routine and technical context for executing trades, that allows you to âstay with the current evolving pictureâ. I donât believe you do this as yet. If you did, how could you lose âinternalâ focus? Iâm talking about a Mental Routine and Technical Context similar to, routinely saying to yourself; âWhat is the market in right now? Is it LLâs & LHâs in a downtrend, then Iâm looking for an up bar PB to Short". "Or is it HHâs & HLâs in an uptrend, then Iâm looking for a down bar PB to go Long". Or are we in a mixed bag of both, Consolidating in some form of Triangulation within a Trading Range, in which case Iâll politely SOH. Yes, you probably need to do some technical work on improving your Shorting technique. But you also need to start developing your mental faculty with using both focus and discipline. Both these are learned Skill sets, and are absolutely essential for the professional. You are on the right track girl, and you have got what it takes! Lets work both hard and smart, ok. Tomorrow is,.........yet another chance to be great. Don't waste it.
Hi LuckyLucy, It's great advice from Matcha using EMA as the guiding light for a direction to trade with. It's important to get the direction right as RN has also recommended to first identify the CONTEXT and trade accordingly You can also identify a new trend is forming by spotting the series of HH/HL and LH/LL. The slope of the EMA seemed to be a bit easier for me. One other thing you can try if you haven't already done so is to use 2 EMAs (e.g. 10 & 20) and observe the crossing and the slope of both EMAs. This has helped me a lot visually to confirm with the on-going trend. Use whatever will help you to stay with the context. But ultimately, everything is in the PA when you become an expert, all indicators are lagging information. --po
Thanks PO. Yes, the Context! That is what i should work hard on.. I used to use EMAs combination ,but found they were not for me.
KDASFTG: Those 3 lessons described clearly my current struggling stage. I now agree that I am lack of mental routine and technical context yet as a trader. The whole time I thought I am fine with them. But through your comment, my action DID reveal I am just lack of them. I canât deny now. They are part of the discipline that I need to follow. Thank you for pointing them out. I am working on them to become a pro-trader no matter what it takes. I am now going to develop the mental routine and context as you suggested. Today, I also made 2 mistakes that distracted me from being focus. I tried to look at both ES and YM as comparison to take trades. It was foolish to do since at this point to me, I need to just focus on one. 2nd, I had a rule from last week that not to short at LOD or go long HOD unless itâs in a trend. Today I just forgot about the condition âin a trendâ. All I think is not to Short at LOD. Then market kept taking out all the L/L. Thank you. M
Definitely in a strong trend, short a new low or buy a new high, BUT best is to be positioned in advance for the breakout. Your long trade was off a falling 20 EMA and although you saw the higher low, there was no higher high to confirm a trend reversal. It was a symmetrical triangle (I HATE those!) and you need to short the outer level or long the outer level or better yet, short the lower high as soon as price breaks back down through the falling 20 EMA. Youâre then well-positioned for the breakout of the âhigher lowâ and then the previous pivot low. Think of the higher low beneath a falling 20 EMA as the beginning of a likely 2-leg pullback in the previous down move. Once a previous resistance is broken then you can start thinking long, but until then, think with the trend, in this case, short.
Matcha, you can't be profitable everyday. You will have some down days so you need a weekly goal. I never said you would trade 8 contracts. If you are trading well, you can trade 20 and more contracts. Especially if you are on the ES. 20 contracts @ 20 pts a week is around $100k per yr. The whippy action could be telling you something about your trading. Perhaps you need to be more selective? Perhaps you need to twitch your system a bit. But I think the ES will make you a better trader. You will get use to it and get better positioning. Anyway, good luck to you today! Europe is already down this morning.