My personal take (which doesn't mean is right or wrong) is I don't like the 1st and 2nd trades because of the tests that occured. In 1st trade (which I prob would have taken and then banged my head against a wall) you have several long upper wicks on the candles. Price tested and failed so a long is a little risky in my book. I've seen this enough to tell me to be more careful. I gotta agree with NoDoji, the short off the tests and the later breakdown was an awesome trade to pull but could be missed in the heat of the moment. NoDoji is an awesome trader and saw it immediately. In 2nd trade, we again have lower tests and looks like we have some support. Especially after that strong move, you prob should wait for a bigger pullback. I like the long. I would have taken that. Also, I see your goal is to make 20pts a day. I think that is too aggressive. I used to have that goal. You don't need it. Simply because you can make a killing with even less. I would say 20pts a week! Yes, a week. eg. you make 20 pts/wk and trade 20 contracts. Thats $8k a month. Thats a great place to start. I think you will have to eventually move to ES. YM is just not liquid enough. I think the sooner you do it, the better.
Thanks for your kind words, but I rarely see setups immediately. At the hard right edge they looks much uglier than at the end of the day. That's why I scroll my chart off the screen end of day when I do an analysis. I don't want to know what happens next and I want to see what the setup looked like in real time. In real time there are often some conflicting factors, especially at trend reversal zones. It's difficult to give up on a trending move, but there are guideposts and warning signs to look for. It's because of the sloppy look to many setups as they're forming that makes it so difficult to trade some of them. If you find yourself hesitating on a trade, there's a saying I've heard a lot, "The market rewards what is difficult."
I don't know. I think it really depends. Personally, I've found when I'm hesitating it's usually because I'm looking for a trade rather than it being an awesome setup. When the setup is great I rarely hesitate. When its just a good/ok one then a little hesitation. When alot of hesitation then its a sign I will lose $$$
In these past few days, I found I had 2 more important work to do in order to fine tune my edge. Itâs so obvious that I did poorly in these 2 bear days. I just couldnât âget in with itâ. The short setups are nothing like long setup. Itâs like there is never a great place to go short. I think we have been in a bull market for so long that I just donât know how to short. Another piece is âfailed patternâ study. I couldnât promptly recognize when the trade is against me. I also donât know when and where to reverse or re-enter. So more back testing, practice, practice and practiceâ¦. When I do the back testing and forward testing I had to always remind myself that there are always 2 sided traders, so when I review each setup and bars I got to think 2 sides. This excise should keep me always stay flexible and react when trade is against me. Probably one of these days, I will spend one day just do counter-trend trade. The other day just do scalp trades to see where my competitions are. Quote RN: âThe market is what â buying and selling â simply repeated over and over You go long â what do you need⦠Other traders to step in and buy higher, driving price up, so you can then sell for a profitâ¦. Some times these other traders step inâ¦, sometimes they donât ...... Same for shorting â you need other traders to step in and sell, driving the price lower, so you can then cover for a profitâ¦. Sometime these other traders step in and sellâ¦. sometimes they donâtâ¦.. ==================================================== Who participates in this buying and selling Institutional traders (includes hedge funds) Market makers (includes bots) joe six pack tradersâ Trade 1: 8:26 long. That was a bad long. Market formed a Wedge pullback long at 7:55. I didnât take the trade, so I got this on. The signal bar is doji but on ES it was a bull reversal bar, so I took this long. I should stick to what YM chart is telling me. The other reason why itâs bad is because the previous 2 bear bars is very strong. I didnât reverse to long since I was still thinking it would go up because of the wedge bottomâ¦but the wedge bottom was failed right after it took my stop out⦠9:00. market sent a short signal below the micro-wedge. I didnât short since itâs a LOD and itâs lunchtime. Looks like I always have reasons not to get in. But when I felt like I missed out from a trade then go in itâs usually too late⦠PnL: -$47. 1 trade In these past few days, I found I had 2 more important work to do in order to fine tune my edge. Itâs so obvious that I did poorly in these 2 bear days. I just couldnât âget in with itâ. The short setups are nothing like long setup. Itâs like there is never a great place to go short. I think we have been in a bull market for so long that I just donât know how to short. Another piece is âfailed patternâ study. I couldnât promptly recognize when the trade is against me. I also donât know when and where to reverse or re-enter. So more back testing, practice, practice and practiceâ¦. When I do the back testing and forward testing I had to always remind myself that there are always 2 sided traders, so when I review each setup and bars I got to think 2 sides. This excise should keep me always stay flexible and react when trade is against me. Probably one of these days, I will spend one day just do counter-trend trade. The other day just do scalp trades to see where my competitions are. Quote RN: âThe market is what â buying and selling â simply repeated over and over You go long â what do you need⦠Other traders to step in and buy higher, driving price up, so you can then sell for a profitâ¦. Some times these other traders step inâ¦, sometimes they donât We use stops for when they donât Same for shorting â you need other traders to step in and sell, driving the price lower, so you can then cover for a profitâ¦. Sometime these other traders step in and sellâ¦. sometimes they donâtâ¦.. Again, we use stops for when they donât ==================================================== Who participates in this buying and selling Institutional traders (includes hedge funds) Market makers (includes bots) joe six pack tradersâ Trade 1: 8:26 long. That was a bad long. Market formed a Wedge pullback long at 7:55. I didnât take the trade, so I got this on. The signal bar is doji but on ES it was a bull reversal bar, so I took this long. I should stick to what YM chart is telling me. The other reason why itâs bad is because the previous 2 bear bars is very strong. I didnât reverse to long since I was still thinking it would go up because of the wedge bottomâ¦but the wedge bottom was failed right after it took my stop out⦠9:00. market sent a short signal below the micro-wedge. I didnât short since itâs a LOD and itâs lunchtime. Looks like I always have reasons not to get in. But when I felt like I missed out from a trade then go in itâs usually too late⦠PnL: -$47. 1 trade [img]http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3101959
Nodoji. Thank you for the notations. They helped me a lot. I am putting down them with all my notes and will keep looking at them. They make me see things in a different perspective and figured out "why and when isn't working". I got to build up this type "thought process" in case trade isn't in my favor. The 2nd trade was very bad and it was the trade that i took because "subconsiously, I missed the shorts whole day". Just like you described. I feel like the recognizing failed pattern skill is the missing part in building up my trading skill set. I will have to study them a little more. Appreciate the 2 assignments, exactly what I needed...
Quote RN: âThe market is what â buying and selling â simply repeated over and over You go long â what do you need⦠Other traders to step in and buy higher, driving price up, so you can then sell for a profitâ¦. Some times these other traders step inâ¦, sometimes they donât ...... Same for shorting â you need other traders to step in and sell, driving the price lower, so you can then cover for a profitâ¦. Sometime these other traders step in and sellâ¦. sometimes they donâtâ¦.. ==================================================== Who participates in this buying and selling Institutional traders (includes hedge funds) Market makers (includes bots) joe six pack tradersâ Totally irrelevant...I won't explain because you will have plenty of time to come to your own realization.
made 7 trades today, the first 6 were all losers. I can make good profit on every entry point if I entered the total opposite position. Really disappointed today, and I thought that was it, I can't do it. Then , in the last half hour, I saw my strong signal, and pulled my trigger. The only winning trade made back 70% of my loss, ended up today of small loss and big commission fees. I am gonna to stop trading tomorrow.There is one key aspect missing in my strategy. I found myself trying too hard to find the best entry point that i ignored the big picture. That is no matter where the market is going, I only trade on my entry..
The first trade I took coz I saw a bull reversal bar that right at the support. So it was techically a D/B or a 2 leg pullback at the EMA type of setup. Also the 2nd attempt to break up the TR. the range is OK wide so at least I could get a scalp profit. Besides the leg up from open is strong. I was also aware that it's in a horizontal flag which decreased the probablity of breakout. It ended up its only worth a scalp. I was targeting for a 20-Pts move, so I did not move my stop. I thought I would give it a bit wiggle room. But it did not work out here. I learned lesson that not to mess up my stop through all losing trades in 2/10 at 8:00. It's just at that time the long worked. The long worked becasue long made the 3 attempts then succeeded... Bulls were aggressive. I think whenever the setup looks weak. it might end up just work like a scalp. And be ready to reverse since the other side would get aggressive... I kind of disagree on the 20Pts a week goal. Yes, it is super difficult to achieve avg20pts as a beginner although I used to think it's easy... It's not easy for me at all... At this point, I barely break even and I still got a lot to learn. I would agree if not making 20pts, make 15 pts a day is also safe. But if someone who can't consistently make 15pts a day should really not be thinking day trading as a career...and should not be adding more contracts... at least that what I think... For my setup, avg signal per day is 2-3. Each signal will produce avg 15-20 pts. So i think it's doable as a beginner. But how long it is going to take there is another story. Probably many years... Trading 8 con. to get 20pts a week. how much one is going to risk! that math would not work for me... i will try demo some trades in ES next week. I demoed ES last week. I did horible! The whippy action is killing me... Maybe I am just not used to.