2 scratch trades. 12: 30pst is never my lucky time to trade. I think for me it might be wise to get out of the position around this time. Feel OK with my discipline. 7:20. I passed on a pullback setup. The signal bar is an inside bar. Inside bar is always tricky to trade. I got trapped so many times by the IB as a signal bar. But the follow through bar is quite nice. Thought of using limit order to enter, but not sure where I should placeâ¦so I decided not to chase. After that, the âno signal to get inâ kind of big move keeps grinding higher without me. Felt like I am done for the day after the move of the day is over in AM session. But later on the day, there are 2 good setups, but they both are just worth scalping. Trade 1: 11.17. 2 leg pullback short, at first I had a buy stop order to buy above the bar. Then order was never hit. Market formed a failed H2 long. Itâs the same failed H2 pattern that happened on Wed. So I took a short. I got out my position when the bull reversal bar at support turned up. +3Pts. Now this pattern clearly is a big H2 long. I reversed the trade. Trade 2: 11:40am, long. Price broke up nicely, momentum is stronger than I âexpectedâ. Since the market never formed a topping pattern near HOD, instead itâs just a continuation pattern. I thought there is no reason to shake out by âtrapped bears patternâ So I trailed my stop and did not just take profit at HOD which is about 16Pts. I held through some retrace, But my stop was hit. +4Pts. I guess some aggressive C-T scalpers were probably happy to get out here. After the Fadersâ profit was made, market continued move in my direction. Only I was not with the move. As long as I am disciplined I am still happy with how I did. PnL: $30. 7 pts, 2 trades Weekly: PnL: -$77,-11Pts Profit Factor: 0.46 Winrate: 44% Avg trades/day: 2 Largest losing position: -$42 Largest winning postion: $32. Overall, 3 biggest lessons learned this week. Never short breakdown or buy breakout near LOD and HOD when there isnât a clear bull or bear strong trend days Stay away from Horizontal flag, when I am in a horizontal flag pattern, let market wiggle or take me out of the trade. Always take profit or tighten stops when trades run more than 20pts. Have a great long weekend!
Great lesson, that one! Someone who noticed how often I traded breakouts in CL had a few failures one day trading breakouts, but the breakouts he was trading were in a wide range. Breakout trading is for strong trends or narrow range consolidation following a strong directional move, not just for any HOD/LOD. Good job today, BTW!
Hi Matcha, A great learning week so far for both of us. I think we needed this just like the market sometimes needs a consolidation, goes sideways and then spike up to the next level! The most important thing is to be disciplined! The trade that you missed at 7:20. Was that a H1 setup. Did you also look at the 2min chart at that point? It's tricky to always take profit or tighten stops when trades run more than 20 pts. You EITHER always take 20 points and let go of the rest of the potential profit or always tighten stop at that point. You will have to decide one way or the other when the moment comes. I agree doing nothing at the point is not a good thing to do. It would be easier if we trade 2+ contracts. We take profit on one, tighten the stop to b/e and let the other one run. For trading 1 contract, have you considered keeping at least 10 points (50%) if your trade has run more than 20 points? I didn't trade today. But I noticed YM was up by a bigger % than ES. And the charts were very different. ES retraced all the way to the morning low in the afternoon before bouncing higher to above the morning high. He he! I almost forgotten Monday is a holiday for traders. Have a nice LONG weekend everyone! --po
Right now I am not worried about missing a move. I stayed super calm because my objective is to learn. If some setup looks a bit suspicious for me, I just let it go even though it might turn to the major move. But i willl asses it later. These days I barely look at smaller time frame. I think for now most of time it's better to only focus on 5min. I do flip to 15min and 60min to see bigger picture. Besides most of my entries now are stop orders. I think trade management is discretionary. It requires some experience. Take 20Pts is the daily goal, but if the trend is very strong I will take more(trailing stops). and if the trend is weak then i will take less than 10 or 20pts. It depends on how bars are presented to me. Yesterday's 2 trades were both stopped out. Since there was no signs of getting out. So I am Ok with stop being hit. I agree. Looks like YM and ES these days are a bit different.
Hi Matcha, I like the way you stay super calm while trading and focus on one time frame (5 min) and not be distracted. I think you have progressed into the next level of pure PA analysis. No indicators, one timeframe, keeping things simple! My current goal is about the same, 2 ES points daily. I'll be happy to take 1 point and be on alert for more if the opportunity comes my way. --po
Not my day. 3 losing trades. 1. 7:34.long, pullback in a horizontal flag. Stopped out. -13pt 2. 11:21. short. -11 Pt 3. 11:30. Long double bottom pullback long.-7pts I thought today the biggest mistake is the 3rd trade to go long. Itâs a technically D/B pullback setup could lead to reversal. But the signal bars are all very weak. In hindsight, I should always be prepared to reverse the trade when I see a failed pattern formed. I was very unsure after I got stopped out from the long. Live trade today. PnL: -$162, -31pts.
Hi Matcha, Sorry to hear your loss today. Tomorrow you will do better. My trading today: {2 trades} - I took exactly the same long trade as your trade #1 and didn't take a small profit, then IB freezed up. Got out for -1.5 ES points. - Took 1 short trade at 9:30p.t. Got out a bit early, +2.5 pts. - Net for the day +1.0 pts. Note: IB's TWS got messed up all day. They have some upgrades which caused some problems for me using the Chart Trader. --po
It's ok. Strange, I am not feeling anything as I used to. I just read the market wrong today. Trendy day is always challenging to me. The 9:30 is a setup for short. I didn't enter since it's near LOD... Hopefully, your platform will be fixed tomorrow.
Matcha, I believe two of your three trades are not problematic at all. Your first trade was a solid setup. Price in a range after hitting a new high, support established and confirmed. Standard pullback entry. Your main concern here is that the previous high could be construed as a failed breakout (fbo) by some, so it's important that price get back up to that high with some conviction to prove there is buying strength. This is the type of trade where I want to see follow through, or I'll scratch for b/e and re-evaluate. There is absolutely no problem with holding for a full stop out, however. Trade management is a personal thing and we all have our particular rules for that. Your 8:00 bar is a warning flag. Price dipped below the 20 EMA, but still closed above it and did not break support. But it looks like the last green bar may prove itself a lower high. If price breaks back down through the 20 EMA and previous support, the range has broken downside and there's enough airspace to the next pivot low support level to make it a worthwhile short. You have to short that setup. If you pick and choose your trades from among valid setups, you will end the day frustrated! Your 3rd trade is also a fine setup. You have a failed breakout low which acts as a double bottom, price triangulates and you play the triangle breakout off the higher lows. I love these setups after a long strong trending move. The setup has no follow through and fails. OK, no big deal, you're out for a scratch or a small loss. Your 2nd trade is the kind of trade you take after missing a really good move. I know, I've been there many times. You decided to pick from among your valid setups and you skipped one. You missed a fantastic short trend all the way down and your ego wants to get back what it missed. So instead of patiently waiting for a possible reversal signal or a confirmed short entry, you take a lukewarm setup. You shorted in a range following a failed final b/o and a higher low. If there's another short setup coming, this isn't it. Wait for a reversal signal to go long, or wait for a confirmed short signal, such as a break of the previous failed b/o - would that be a failed failure failing? - or a break out of the range/triangle that then reverses back down through the 20 EMA or previous pivot low. You have two assignments: 1. Stay alert, and trade all valid setups. Bias is fine, until price shows you a picture of your bias cheating on you 2. If you miss a great move, evaluate the price action at that point in time as if you just turned on your computer and haven't taken a single trade yet.