@Opteronion precious, precious considerations here, I like them a lot but how do you know that what you are tracking in your log on wins and losses contains the data that will allow you to identify a "statistically effective formula"? In other words, how do you know that you are not missing the real variables other then the ones you think make up the formula (e.g. week day, hour, price, etc.) to recognize good trades? nt
"....never let a profit turn into a loss" That is really not applicable to a day trader. I average around 55-56% wins but a good 90% of those start out with positive ticks. In order to not let a profit turn into a loss, I would have to take many small profits and the numbers would not work but your overall concept is valid.
Add the word "reasonable" or "decent"... never let a REASONABLE profit turn into a loss. All that's left is determine what reasonable means in the context of why the trade was taken. This does not work for tic-pluckers however.
Reasonable should be defined by the system. You should find the optimal exit based on backtesting. If the backtest is statistically relevant, you can find an objective and reliable exit that will give you close to the optimal solution. The best balance between letting profits run and avoiding to turn it in a loss.
"those techniques have to be discovered by you first (unlike all other games where required techniques are public knowledge)" Yes. true. This is the rub. Speaking of daytrading futures: To make consistent profits you need a consistent edge. To get a consistent edge you must do something that is not "known". This means you must discover or invent something new (or new application of something known). To invent something new you must think differently from others This isn't to say there aren't rules of thumb that are useful and should be learned. Really you must learn all the key elements and THEN go beyond the established knowledge and generate something new.
Whatever. Since your power of inference needs some development - The Market is the answer to your question. The market is always right and one can know this by debriefing a day. Many a trader/teacher as well as teacher/traders will point to this, if they point to themselves, well perhaps a meal ticket depends on it. To that leads to the question, "How do I debrief a day?" The popular answer is journaling. And there is an extension of journaling that has more structure and can provide more utility and that is logging. Log every bar. If one uses indicators, log the position of those indicators as they are collected in the same dataset as price and volume. Correlations will arise, patterns will arise. One's discernment will build. Experiment with other indicators until one sees the truth of all indicators. Ultimately the path will lead to just price and volume and the spectrum of differentiation that you have built within your mind. You will notice deeper principals that guide surface movements. As a sculptor looks at a piece of granite and 'exposes' what is already there, one's mind's eye can do the same with the market. It has underlying principals of operation that can be discerned. The market has symmetry. Anything applied to the long applies to the short position as well. The market is fractal. Patterns can be observed from the smallest to the largest timescale. More insight can be discerned when one decouples from time and shifts to an event orientation. An archetypal trend can be defined by three price moves - Dom to non-Dom and a return to Dom. Trends can be complete or incomplete. The list goes on,... However, in the conciseness of your mind all the above can be reduced to,... 'whatever'
On the most part I would agree with you. What your post does not address is the fact that human emotions have remained unchanged throughout the evolution of markets.
As most people don't make money in the long term, it is obvious that you should think differently. That's the reason why it is difficult to discuss with people that don't know what you know and vice versa, as both have different ways of thinking.