There is flood control on the interwebs, so I'll just say that it's path-dependent and lol to your question. Shortie: Spot is 700bp over VXX pseudo-CMS (blended front month futs), so it's not going to approach 100 delta on a rally in SPX. I agree that spot is going to 36 in short order, so maybe 32 on VXX. The roll will keep it under 50 deltas.
Manipulation of VXX is to keep people confused, while insiders scoop all the shares they want. When that's done, VXX will drop and the common crowd can have the left-overs and crumbs...
A spike up could mean we have higher volatility in some situations. For example, what kind of volatility levels existed on Nasdaq stocks in the late 1990s ? I'm not that familiar with VIX/VXX so this is why I ask.
Buddy, try canning your dumb ass routine and answer the question in a knowledgeable fashion. Or just shut up. Honestly, what is your problem ?
I've seen it argued that the VIX could rise with a rising market, I've just never seen it happen to any extent. Do you have any examples where it did? My guess is the difference has to do with the differences between greed and fear, but then I focus more on what the markets do rather then trying too hard to understand why they do what they do. Offhand the closest example I can think of to a "crash" up was spring 2009. For the 3 months from March 9th, SPY gained 40% while the VIX lost 40%. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&st=2009-1-1&en=2009-7-1&id=p14019836768
I was trying to relate VIX behaviour to options pricing behaviour and I don't think its worth pursueing. With respect to options, what I do is track fairly recent prices at certain levels to ensure I'm not overpaying premium or spread due to temporary blips in price ( for whatever reason including implied volatility ). Its very easy to take a bad price if you are impatient and don't have perspective on recent prices.
In the run from Nov 99 thru March, the VXN (Nasdaq volatility index rose about the same as QQQ did. At the same time the VIX was mostly flat. VXN showed fear and the market was right to be fearful. So the question is whether the market is right to be fearful now. Only time will tell. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&st=1999-1-1&en=2000-4-1&id=p48531045226