I am starting a "newbie" journal for 2006 because I found myself often closing the shop too early and also I don't want things to get "moldy". I know I am NOT good enough to handle a real time journal so all posts will be done at the end of the day. I will report my results using a hypothetical account of $5000 starting with a single contract of ES. I will not get into too much details of my system. I only trade ES reversal using support/resistance levels. I have looked at Fibonacci, implied volatility band, Gann Square of Nine etc...etc... I throw away as much stuff as I can that doesn't work whole lot of times (distractions) for me and have tied together a system of my own using stuff from scam artists' junk to my own observations. I only use leading indicators for my entry which are pretty precise so I often use a 1 pt ES stop. To prevent myself from fighting "persistent" trend, I will use "1-losing-trade-stop" rule if it seems like a trend day or if my rolling week percent profitable deteriorated below 60%. Otherwise 2-3 strikes I am out for the day. Live and fight another day! I go for 2 pt (2:1 reward/risk) profit target for the first half of the contracts and momentum profit target for the remaining contracts. It means I am really trading 2 systems for diversification but since I will start off with a single contract in the model account, I will always exit at 2 pt profit or stopped out losing a pt! My momentum profit target is based on the idea of Terry Laundry's T Theory. It doesn't always work but that is my idea of long term. Basically I diversify the system with two different exit rules (short and longer term) hoping for lower drawdown instead of optimal profits. I am just start reading a book by Andre Kostolany. He said it is foolish to scalp the market and I think he is right... but that is what I do for now. If this journal doesn't work out for me, I will shut it down early. Good trading. http://www.mcwdn.org/Animals/Ameba.html
Buy at 1258 Sold at 1260. +2 I got in a little early... too anxious but it still worked out luckily. I would say any one trade is luck... I just saw it comes right back.
I am not a good trend trader... not enough patience... too worried about drawdowns. Maybe next lifetime
What sort of approach or system are you looking at or using. When I made my post, the ES was at 1256 or so and kept falling to 1251. However at 10:35 or so the downward trend reversed and we have been in an uptrend ever since. I attached a chart. Maybe looking at minute charts will help you time your longs and shorts better. It has helped me and although not perfect does give you better signposts.