Martingale betting system - Sic Bo

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by jonp, Jul 6, 2010.

  1. jonp

    jonp

    So it was the weekend and I had a bit too much time on my hands...

    I hadn't been to the Casino for about 6 months before yesterday and I had no interest whatsoever in going back...until I got this idea. If you are familiar with Sic Bo, skip the next paragraph.

    In Sic Bo, among other choices, the bettor has the option of betting on any number between 1-6. Three dice are rolled, If you hit your number you get paid the amount you bet, you get two numbers you get two times your bet, and if all three come you get three units. Another option is to try to predict which two numbers will come together and that pays 5-1.

    This table was Min5 and Max500

    My plan was simple, I picked two numbers which I would repetitively play; 5 and 3. I was going to bet Minimum bet on 5 and same for 3. If i miss, I go to 10 on each, If I stay at the 10 level while breaking even a few times I just stay at the level until something happens. If I'd lose the 10 level and then put down 20 on both numbers, in which case I had the odds in my favor of a 5 or 3 eventually coming together, or just one coming twice. Also when I was betting at levels such as 40-40, and 80-80, which seldom happened within the first two hours, but when I did I tripled on the 40-40 level which was nice, and the other times I won all my losses back plus always making $10 on the "risk-free trade".

    This was working like a machine within the first 2-2.5 hours. I was playing steady, with a constant and almost predictable stream of revenue. From my $800 buy in I was up to $1050.

    A few minutes later I'm sweating at the 80-80's. A 6-4-1 comes, in which case I was down to the back up plan, which was based on the following premise: "by the time you have to use the backup plan it will be on average 9-10 rolls that a 3 or 5 do not come together. Odds are that your duo hits 1 every 7 rolls."

    So you divy up the rest of your money into increasing lots which you will bet one after another on the chance that 3 and 5 will come together. If they do you make all your losses back with a bit of profit and continue the system at 5-5 level.

    In my case I had 6 lots, one bigger than the next. I started to bet them, it didn't take long just about 6 minutes before I was broke. (Two 3's did come at the would-have-been 160-160 level.)

    So what did I take from this? It's beatable but only for a while before the so called odds or chances start to act funny and go cold. Which would be bankruptcy for me but the casino can wait all day for it to happen and make all their money back with profit. The only way that you would be able to weather the cold a bit longer would be to go all the way up to the 320-320 level, and then betting on a 3-5 duo, starting with probably 250 and increasing by 50 dollars until 500. You can even go bigger, have a 20k bankroll and play at the casino a half dozen hours per week, which if goes smoothly should make about 8-9% an hour, so you can have 30k after a few weeks or you could have 0. That's just playing with fire, in the long run it wouldn't work.

    I don't think the risk is worth the reward.
     
  2. Another attempt to reinvent the perpetual motion machine runs aground... :cool:

    I don't think you can martingale your way to reliable profits unless you have an outpeformance edge, and a near infinite bankroll, for the occasional time that the Black Swan comes home to roost.
     
  3. Knowing that its a short term play... the longer you play the greater your odds at blowing up. If you started with 800 why didn't you just walk away when you hit 800 in profits?.

    Martingale players should read up on Arcsine theories. If you get a quick pop... take it and run.
     
  4. jonp

    jonp

    pocketchange, you're right, my greedy side got the better of me
     
  5. jonp

    jonp

    ...and if the post was misleading I never had 800 in profits, I had 1050 total.
     
  6. Vegas loves a "system"!

    Studying trading has absolutely ruined casinos for me. The wife and I were in Vegas a couple weeks ago. I couldn't bring myself to play a table game. Just couldn't do it.

    I was sad. I used to love sitting down with the mrs. and seeing how long we could make $50 last at roulette or blackjack. Now all I think about is a graph of steadily declining bankroll, and a bell curve of projected time sitting waiting for blowout. Depressing.

    It was like when I found out there is no Santa Claus. I miss my ignorance. :(
     
  7. play games where you have an edge....poker.....
     
  8. jonp

    jonp

    yup I play; texas, omaha(hi/lo)...
    it's true that with experience and skill and at a table with players of all different skill levels you do have an edge. you still need a roll to withstand the times when noobs crack you on the river with their 3 outers. or worse a guy who doesn't even know he's a donkey and is happy to be all in with his gutshot draw after the flop, wins the hand and thinks he's good.
    as quickretirement said " the black swan comes home to roost...."
     
  9. Black swans only hurt when margin to equity ratio is out of wack :p
     
  10. wave

    wave

    proper m/e with good edge is the holy grail.

    the right m/e ratio will eat black swans for breakfast.
     
    #10     Jul 7, 2010