It depends how many times, after the first bet the probability changes, it's not always the same probability, so if someone else has made the same bet as you, the outcome becomes stochastic
Marty went to the dark side of shorting naked puts. He's got zero cred as a speculator at this point.
Depends on when he bought. If he shorted naked puts at peak of virus, he's seriously injured. If he shorted naked puts at end march 2020, he's got much richer today. We don't know when he placed his position.
Dude, try harder. He lost $25MM in short vol. It's in the interview on this thread. Fuck, it's in the title! Listen to the interview.
Ok. My fault for not listening to the interview. I hope he's not wiped out. He gave me the impression he's always a careful risk manager in his book.
%% He pretty much was careful; according to his book. And sometimes/stuff happens; I was going thru a yellow caution light. Being careful, but all of a sudden the car in front of me slams on his brakes/blocks the intersection So now I allow for anyone doing stupid stuff like that crash...………………………………………………………………………….