trading cannot be learnt or understood from a book or be taught.... markets move in one direction faster and slow in the other....this determines who is stronger bear or bull...... traders get attracted to the fast movement and then have to sit through the slow ones for a long time the problem here is that it takes a lot of time to move in the wrong direction which tires off traders the best entry is at the extremes of ranges
I look at initial risk and actual risk. Initial risk is where I initially place my SL and that, for me, is usually a logical PA stoploss. What I mean by that is, that if price gets close and takes out my SL then my premise about the trade has probally been proven wrong. I may then doubleup (if context makes sense) and go in the opposite direction of my original SL and get back my loss and perhaps some profit to boot. I prefer to generally take trades where my initial SL and PT is at least 1:1 (reward to risk). For instance, in your chart we have been looking at I would consider that such a BO,if successful, would at least give a measured move up and maybe more. So I would measure from the point of the BO and extrapolate that upwards to give me my PT. Then I would see where I need to place my initial SL logically according to PA and see if I think it will render me a 2:1 at minimum a 1:1 . On a big BO i generally would consider that I would probally get a second leg up that would give me at least a 1:1 initial RR. So...if I took the trade where you took it at top of large green bar (trade #1) the measured move from whence the upmove started (i.e. bottom of the range) would take my trade to top mm1 green line. That would give me a 1:1 RR. However, the actual risk was the bottom of subsequent PB plus 1 tick that came after my entry hence my RR was more like 3:1 if I held to green MM1 mark. If I deemed the max initial risk of trade#1 was not within my comfort level then i would wait for the PB and enter at the BO PB entry (trade#2). My initial risk would be less and more in my comfort zone and my RR more like 2:1 on blue mm2 mark and more like 5:1 if I held to the top of the chart. Of course not taking trade #1 and waiting for a pb entry (trade#2) carries the risk that there may not be no pb right after the Trade#1 potential entry so I may miss out all together on any trade waiting on a pb.
volpri, Thank you for demonstration, I understand now. I understand fully. My trades are very rarely R:R >1 because I always wait for that extra bar(s) to enter and exit at a near support or resistance I see. So although, a bit of extra confirmation, increased probability of a win, but less profit bigge risk. For instance below, (green arrow entry, red arrow exit), show my entries and exit for today. Both profitable trades, but my stop loss is bigger than my profits. Had I taken the more aggressive reversal trade in blue, the R:R >1.
qlai, Yes, I callit trend of the moment. Just something I made it. It can be called momentum too. lol, a bunch of red or green bars in one directions.
good point a trend in the beginning has very little momentum....lot of deep pullbacks, which makes the move look weak, but it just grinds relentless on,trapping all those who do not know it is a trend. remember [experienced with deep pockets] traders want to enter at the best price, so they love a weak market, grinding up which looks to most traders like a corrective move. there is no problem in trading momentum moves,since you get the fastest profit, as long as you realise it is momentum move and mange your trade accordingly
the end of a trend, is a trend and if there a lot of red or green bars, then it may be getting ready for a PB at best