padutrader, I don't like to predict what the market will do, just like to wake up in the morning and React to what the market does. Either way, up or down, I want to follow and take good high probability trades that could lead to some winning. What I am learning is when I see that market clearly going up or down in a direction, get my happy ass on board with it and be happy and thankful and smiling I have high probability chance of a winning trade for the day.
If you gonna play high probability trades then you will have to settle for smaller reward. But you should have a higher win rate providing you are good at finding high prob setups. An exception on high prob big reward could be BO’s.
volpri, Yes, my average losses are a bit higher than my average profits, because I like to wait to confirm a breakout or just one more strong bar follows after another strong bar. So I always get higher loss and smaller profit depending on my profit target. But, I don't care, I rather take higher probability trade for now, then trying to get in too early, and turn for a loss. I let the big boys show there hands, then I just get on board. If you can't beat them, join them. I think I read somewhere here, second mouse click , get the cheese.
you have to be a little careful here the market always tests any area twice or trice....so if there is a pivot standing alone you can be sure that the market will test that ....this is the nature of the market ... fast moves once they weaken will be tested often more than once. and then a move will happen
i have a feeling you trade in stocks you will always find something that is breaking out. but what you trade is determined by how much capital you have. if you want to trade for a living then you make sure you do not blow your account....so trade small...... what is small? your capital determines what is small. and since you have to make enough money per day you therefore need a big enough capital. while they say do not average losing positions ....every move ends....and on a shorter time frame the move will end sooner than later...so if you average in small time frames it a good trading strategy as long as the context is a trading range
like i said...i observe the market and i have seen a pattern....that repeats now that does not mean i can make millions because someone has to lose millions and there are no people kind enough to do that. also it is one thing to know a pattern and quite another to trade it. like i said a 5 year old can tell you market direction but this 5 year old cannot make money....this may not sound logical but knowing direction does not mean you will make money