Marking timing by sentiment - opinions?

AyeYo · Jan 4, 2010

Jack, thanks for the reply. Your posts are generally over my head and take about 10-15 reads through before I understand them, so I'll get back to you in a day or two. lol

nutmeg · Jan 4, 2010

Quote from AyeYo:

Jack, thanks for the reply. Your posts are generally over my head and take about 10-15 reads through before I understand them, so I'll get back to you in a day or two. lol
More...

I think the important point is you have two knowledgeable guys who agree and confirm your idea. Now the hard part is to translate the idea into something workable that fits your style and personality and build on this to make it work for you.

Also I'd like to add re "who tend to be consistently right or wrong" you may not agree with their reasoning but that has to be beside the point.

psytrade · Jan 4, 2010

No one here has mentioned Woody Dorsey.

He has written the excellent book behavioral trading...in 2004.

He has a reporting service which uses proprietary sentiment measures to profit from volatility, and from directional trades, sector rotation, and unexpected events.

He has satisfied customers, and a cheap way to learn the basics of his strategy is from the book

http://www.amazon.com/Behavioral-Trading-Measuring-Confidence-Expectations/dp/1587991640

Also, you can read his more recent market insights at Minyanville

PlusMinus · Jan 4, 2010

Quote from Cheese:

The way to look at a market is to study its metrics. Find out what points it offers daily. The number of points it offers is the sum of the gyrations; you add together the maximum points from the swings up and down sequentially, open to close. And the assumption is you are going to daytrade.

If I take the NG market for December 2009 (22 trading days), it offered a maximum of 19609 points; thats a mean average of 891 points per day. This is a market offering a lot of points, open to close daily. Imagine if you only took just 10% net of that, trading just one 10$ contact, thats a $19,609 net profit. If I look at all the NG swings in December, they total 260 swings at a mean average of 75 points each.

The logs I keep consist of numbers, not words. This is hugely more accurate than descriptive logs. It facilitates rational and exact comparisons and analysis. This also is a left brain approach (logical, sequential, rational, analytical, objective and looking at the parts).

You can note that those who promote their systems on ET are right brained (random, intuitive, holistic, synthesizing, subjective and looking at wholes). While these are not all inferior elements, it explains why often their claims and contentions fail through the innate inexactitude of their wholly descriptive approach.

More...

How do you define a swing? By number of minutes in a bar? Isn't that completely arbitrary? A 15 minute chart will have a different number of swings from close to close than a 5 minute chart. Or are you talking about something different?

Trader666 · Jan 5, 2010

Fade Jack and you can make a fortune

"As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2560747#post2560747

Quote from jack hershey:

I agree with nazzdack.

Quote from nazzdack:

It can "work" as long as you can identify a "data sample" of people in the market who tend to be consistently right or wrong and you get the info soon enough to act on it.
More...

More...

TraderZones · Jan 5, 2010

Quote from jack hershey:

This is true for several reasons.

My posts are dense. They are critical thinking oriented.

When a person "works" on understanding markets a lot of thinking goes on from the first spark to an automated pane involving high utility.

I spent about 4 months getting scoring down. As you have seen in the last several years there will NOT be a backtest of the scoring in the context of its universe and its signal generator (the unusual volume one pager). We know why, too. It would prove two things: one about a reader and one about an author.

Here, for sentiment, a different tool arrived. Measuring smart money's activity is a leading indicator of indexes that smart money is NOT trading as the dominant player group. How often does a thread appear that enquires about using leading sentiment indicators for trading? How often does a method made public for quite a while become used by very many people? Not often, since that is not possible as a consequence of how most people think. You prove that every single day.

What is it like for people who use smart money anticipatory indicators to read your posts? It is very humorous and worthwhile having the laugh.

Try to reflect. you post a cross eyed guy lookiung at his cork and I respond by calling about 20 trades in order for the next day as a response. Try to imagine the anticipatory sentiment indicator of smart money on the days of those advanced calls and the call within minutes of the end of a short channel.

The what if, is this: what if some ET members actually do learn to call the trades of the next day? what if they learn to use a smart money leading indicator? Well the answer is that they did and they do.

You wasted years and years of your life saying the same thing. Nothing. you have nothing to say but you say it anyway to keep the threads I post in at the top of the list. Thanks.

Put up another off topic pic for everyone amusement including mine.
More...

Ghost of Cutten · Jan 5, 2010

Quote from AyeYo:

What do you guys think about timing markets (for investment purposing) using sentiment, namely the Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll? Example here: http://beaconassetmanagers.com/3-beacon-blog/oil-sentiment.html

FYI, save the flames, this is not something I'm looking to do. I'm asking for educational purposes.
More...

Using sentiment alone I have not found to be useful, however in conjunction with price action it is a very good strategy. However, sentiment polls are not very very useful for judging sentiment IMO. I find that the best way to judge sentiment is to follow a market continually, read media mentions about it, and speak to other traders (both good and bad) and get their opinions about it. Do that and you should be able to judge what the current sentiment is.

nutmeg · Jan 5, 2010

Since I saw the thread on the PPT (rex nutting), I think the current sentiment is "sumbody knows sumpin".