Marketsurfer's bold gold proclamation

Surf, I put you on ignore, but then deleted that entry just to mention something.

Any trader who makes hard and fast predictions about stock or market direction beyond a day or so in my opinion is not a trader, but a wannabe trader. (Even a day or so is difficult)

There are probabilities but no certainties. Trading 101.

Personally I would have thought you’d have more of a clue.

Predicting is so BS.

Anyways, predict away, you have lost all credibility with me, if this is how you trade then for me you have nothing to offer.

Reply what you will, you’re back on ignore and I won’t see your reply, now I’ve made my point.
Nothing personal, same thing applies to all dipsticks whom waffle on this board predicting.

 

So by your reasoning none of these hedge funds, poortfolio managers or stock investors actually know what they're doing and can't be successful traders ... not to mention the longer term swing-traders (some of whom are on this board). :eek:

Wow, can you say "retard"?

Boy, I'd love to see what you use to trade ... ooops, I already have.

P.S. You can put me on ignore, then say your taking me off to talk shit and then put me back on again, dipstick.

 

The original poster was not attacking 'trading based on time periods greater than 1 day.'

The orignal poster was attacking - 'longer-term trading based on predictions not probabilities.'

In other words, he is against longer-term trading where you accept only binary outcomes (huge profit, or you get a margin-call)

Trading is indeed based on probabilities - and thus one should have an exit strategy - if a trade goes sour

 

IMO Gold held $850 (previous all-time high, now support) pretty convincingly. I don't think it's a good short. And would want to see $840 before playing the short side at all.

 

Don't know if poortfolio is a wry spelling or just a typo, but it works in any case!

 

You have given me an honest reply, so I will endeavor to do the same to you.
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Trading is whatever the mind of the trader makes it out to be. There are numerous examples of traders who trade in a fashion which most people would not agree with ... but they propose that this is what "works for them", and they are adamant about it.

Just a few examples:

1. Traders who use Japanese candlesticks (or any of the numerous asian trading techniques).

2. Traders who take long-term position trades ... and allow thousands of dollars of profit to evaporate because that is the way they have structured their systems.

3. Traders who propose to catch every twist and turn that the market makes, taking each move to a profitable conclusion.

4. Traders who micro scalp, and claim this is the path to riches.

5. Traders who like to keep going, thinking that over time, the more setups they take, ultimately the more profitable they will be.

6. Traders who prefer to quit while they are ahead, relying on very "tight" setups and active money management to achieve their profits over time.

7. Traders who take positions based on macro views, and hold those trades so long as whatever criteria they used to enter them still holds true ... Marketsurfer falls into the last category, so, regardless of what price action is doing, he'll hold his trade to its logical conclusion, whether that be feast or famine.

 

I dont think this way of trading is bad at all, I do it myself(macro with no stops). you can control the risk through position sizing, the problem is that he comes out saying 'im dead certain of xyz' without providing much of any reasoning just to get attention then it all blows on his face and hes like 'oh, i was wrong', well then why the hell you are posting, he can massage his ego somewhere else.

plus its like hes never right on the big picture, forget tradingmarkets.com he should be writing for the new york times

 

The only other guys around here who post macro views are Pabst Prime and Buy1Sell2 ... and I don't know about PB, but when B1S2 is wrong he gets totally slammed on his thread, so I'd say the best way to deal with MS if you don't like his calls is to just ignore them ... or start a thread based on "logical" market analysis (LOL logical market analysis ... ).

 

My problem is with understanding what is going on, most calls that I recall from last year were countertrend ones (please correct if mistaken) where he would have a stop miles away, that's fine, but for that you need to have a much bigger target, which he didn't seem to have. ImPO he is better off employing BuySell2's idea of trading with a trend and having large stops, more secure that way.

 

All experts predicted oil to be where it is now.. (no surprise) All experts predicted the Dow to be where is it now from last Jan (no surprise) Surf has surprised even warren Buffet but hes still an expert. I think because your a rookie and with only 33 posts should be kicked from this site (your stuck on stupid)