i use to be a big cycle guy---studied lots of the foundation for the study of cycle material--- --- however, the potential cycle alignment is but one small factor. don't put that much faith in this style any longer, FYI, regardless still find it interesting. http://www.foundationforthestudyofcycles.org/ surf
If you take the number of U.S. Dollars in circulation (M1) and calculate the number of dollars for each oz of gold backing it, I believe you'll get a number like $4763 dollars per oz. This assumes the 9,000 tons of gold the Fed is supposed to have are actually in their possession, and not "leased" out to someone who may not pay them back (as in the case of LTCM). M1 = $1,372,000,000,000 oz Au = 9,000 tons x 32,000 oz/ton God forbid you should include the almost $10,000,000,000,000 of debt on the books and God really forbid you include the $55,000,000,000,000 of unfunded SS and Medicare promises So basically, my $2000 number is a "lowball", based on real inflation (not CPI) since 1979 using a reasonable gold price of $500 at the time. Obviously, with the dollar being debased at an alarming rate, its a moving target. My personal opinion is that when the debt number hits $10 trillion next year (which would take 100 years of $100 billion per yr surplus to repay), our creditors will realize that its completely unpayable, and refuse to lend us more, forcing a "revaluation" of the US dollar with gold backing once again, and ending the printing press/helicopter money game. In the words of Thomas Jefferson, who watched the Continental Dollars devalue to worthlessness, "Paper is poverty, it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself." The Constitution only allowed gold and silver to be used as money for good reason, and I think we will soon learn that same lesson again.
By next April, I figure we'll have hit $1100, anyway. Oil has typically been 1/10th of gold, so that doesn't seem unreasonable to me. My post above is more of a long term view, sort of what I expect to happen as baby boomers start to retire and collect instead of working and paying in. Anyway, I agree. $600 is just a fading memory, and nothing even close to it will ever be seen again.
With all due respect, I find this post abit stupid. Have you not witnessed the burst bubble in agriculture, and gold....the last wave 4 for the weekly continuous contract was in the area of $560 - $728. Check out market history before you start soothsaying.
Its THE DOLLAR BUBBLE that is going to burst, IMO. They can't print infinite amounts of gold to match it.
You are quoting Elliot Wave analysis and criticzing someone else for soothsaying? I am sorry, is Elliot Wave analysis now an exact scientific tool for predicting the future?
As long as we're talking about elliot wave theory, this might be of some help: <img src="http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/uploads/spwaver/2008-04/gc-4-29-4036.gif">