The best answer so far! That's why traders are also called Timers (of Turns)! When looking backwards after turning, we then know whether the previous move was a down trend, an up trend, a range bound, a flat market, etc. (in hindsight)
You are making the same mistake as marketsurfer to believe that trading is about being a hindsight jokey. The following trade demonstrates mastery of foresight. The real time call out for the trade is here: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...risk-in-the-sp500.85694/page-470#post-4077318
Probably a surprise for you but i agree with you. It has nothing to do with hindsight. I take a position because I know with very high probability what the market will do in future (that's why i trade futures !! ). Mostly correct, seldom wrong.
But since you can't talk about it, I guess it's no use to ask you for proof. Why, you might even have to open a new ET account.
I proved in past already some trades but even then bashers find explanations why i was lucky or some other reason. Besides what is the advantage for me to post? I trade purely intraday.
The advantage would be I wouldn't have to ask you again. I generally size people up to see where they fit in. If I don't see anything, they don't fit in anywhere.
I dont completely disagree with you. However, given statistics vs anecdotal or surviorship biased results--- ill bet on the stats. With that said, i believe one can still make money regardless of statistically valid trends. surf
Thanks. This is very well stated. However, HFT proves quantatative models make mince meat out of nearly everything else. Otherwise, i thnk the evidence shows you are correct.