marketsurfer, how does it feel to be wrong?oil $79

im a speculator, not a prophet. yeah, i was early on the trade and took a hit. i don't agree with your 120 call by 2010.

surf



http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/


OIL.G8.DEC07.>37.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 37.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 98.0 - 99.0 0 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>40.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 40.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 98.0 - 98.5 94 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>42.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 42.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 98.0 - 98.5 92 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>45.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 45.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 98.0 - 98.5 392 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>47.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 47.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 98.0 - 98.0 725 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>50.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 50.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 95.0 98.5 97.0 738 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>52.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 52.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 96.0 98.0 96.5 850 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>55.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 55.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 95.0 98.0 96.0 941 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>57.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 57.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 95.0 - 95.5 347 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>60.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 60.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 94.5 - 95.0 607 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>62.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 62.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 93.0 98.0 94.5 108 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>65.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 65.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 91.0 - 94.0 141 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>67.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 67.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 91.0 - 92.0 72 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>70.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 70.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 85.0 99.0 89.0 229 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>72.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 72.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 80.0 90.0 80.5 72 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>75.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 75.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 76.0 89.0 85.0 96 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>77.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 77.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 40.0 82.0 72.0 167 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>80.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 80.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 50.0 70.0 60.0 441 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>82.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 82.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M 20.0 60.0 59.0 102 +9.0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>85.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 85.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 3.0 89.0 5.0 0 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>87.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 87.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M - - 1.0 0 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>90.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 90.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 1.0 - 1.0 0 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>92.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 92.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M - - 1.0 0 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>95.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 95.00 on Dec 31st 2007 M 1.0 - 1.0 0 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>97.50
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 97.50 on Dec 31st 2007 M - - 1.0 0 0
OIL.G8.DEC07.>100.00
Feb 08(G8) Oil Futures to close ON or OVER 100.00 on Dec 31st 2007

 

I dont either, it looks like I was too conservative. still Im wondering how can you call possibly can yourself a trader when you cant figure out the easiest most obvious supply and demand picture in one of the most liquid markets in the world and try to short based on stupid 'contrarian' bets that are essentially short volatility trades that have TERRIBLE risk rewards are ALMOST impossible to time correctly, the fact that the market was overlybullish DID NOT prevent the market from rallying gigantic amounts and taking all the money from bears

 

if oil spiked to 150 in ´08 I would not be surprised.

regards
f9

 

it is our belief that oil is at or very very near a long term top.

take it as you will,

surf

 

anymore words of wisdom?

 

nice call, daal.

yes, i was wrong here.


surf

 

Its pretty hard to see gold staying below $1000 too long if oil reaches $150(and inflating other commodities due high energy), so you better have inside information on why it would crash 50%. plus quick 50% crashes moves are unlikely by their very nature

 

Gold is a "theory" outlet...you do not actuall use it for anything...Oil is used for everything transport wise as Corn etc..even Euros are actul currency...when money flows out of cash does not have to go into 'actual Gold'...can go into Oil or Euros etc...so, at the end of the day Gold is a "follower and lagger" and not leader at all...look at the Euro, Oil and SP500 to see where Gold will go...again, Gold never leads...

 

well I agree with that. Im saying oil will lead gold not the other way around, whether that market should or should not buy gold in response to soaring oil its irrelevant in my view

 

.



yes, well stated.

i stand by my projection of gold at or near 600 by 4.1.2009.


here is a piece i did this morning giving one reason why. however, expecting a bounce short term:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/eminis/commentary/guestcommentary/-76723.cfm


surf