http://bp1.blogger.com/_YeFdsdns0YY...Y/bnpKK4lvBGM/s1600-h/27leon_graph2_large.gif 8-10 yrs til recovery is more realistic.
I have been through this 2 times in my career. I have seen it all. This is one is 3rd time around and it always rebounds hard and fast with a pent up fury doubling real estate prices. No one can project when it will rebound 6 months or 6 years. All we know its been since Fall of 2005 that we have seen this downturn.
Japan is not United States of America. This is different ball game. We have different rules and Fed money supply. But the heart of it its the consumer to blame who froze in the middle of the street like a deer in the headlights and this whole thing came unglued in 2.5 years. If the consumer stops spending further and his "scared psychology " doesn't changes you will see a full blown recession in the works. The FEDS, CONGRESS and WHITHOUSE would be trying hard to change that mindset.
I call bullshit now, show me where it has doubled in a short time twice before. This real estate boom/bust is UNPRECEDENTED!!! We in America have never gone through one like this before, not even close.
Here is what the Japanese rates look like, they have "given" money away. Bottom line is the valuations of homes was one of the greatest hard assett bull markets in modern times, one that was grossly over-inflated and is now collapsing in on itself.
Do the math on this one and tell me you'll get a bottom and swift vicious turn around soon. NOT HAPPENING! Washington and U.S. Per Capita Personal Income Cannot sustain this-
Again Japan is not the Industrial Giant like United States. US economy is lot more stable and resilient and controls the rest of the world. This is not a good analogy. If feds cut rates any day and its coming this market will fly 300-1000 points easily. White house will deliver a package in Jan 2008 and that too will boost the major indexes. Cover your shorts while you can or get you asses bleeding to the moon.
I cannot vouch for the authenticity of the charts where they re coming from, please quote sources. Unless the data is from US Office of Oversight department, consider it useless. Real estate prices donot move like stock prices and parabolic arcs which sell off in a matter of days and retrace on fibonnaci numbers. None of that stuff. It takes years before real estate prices go down. They are very sticky when moving downwards. People hold on to homes and donot sell unless they have to for some pressing reason. The comparison between real estate prices and the " bubble" on Nasdaq is meaningless. It didn't happen. Just remember: Real estate prices always go up in the long term and have done so in the last 80 years.
Looking at this thread and your previous posts in other threads, one has to wonder if you're trying to get a rise out of people with all your posturing. If you're that confident, just make your bets and be done with it. No need to convince the rest of us "imbeciles" of how right you are. In any case, given that you mentioned you are "an inhabitant of the U.S.", some ESL classes might be in order. That will probably be the only thing you would profit from in the meantime. At least your ranting would then be grammatically correct. RT