Markets woes- blame the scarity American consumer

Discussion in 'Economics' started by HedgefundTrader2, Jan 13, 2008.

  1. Spoken like a true bull that is underwater in his trading/investment portfolio, lashing out at everyone for their failure to spend like drunken sailors. Little does he know the rum ran out awhile ago and the party is over. Now all there is left is a bunch of hung over fools adrift on an ocean, wondering where the next bottle is. You can always tell a posters position by the desparation of his written word.

    I laughed all the way to the bank!!!

     
    #11     Jan 13, 2008
  2. For how long? A few months? Given your writing, you could not possibly have gone to school here.

    LC
     
    #12     Jan 13, 2008
  3. You speak as if you have some magical quality to know my portfolio? Little you know you are a full fledged idiot.

    The market has not gone down and the recession has not come and those are facts. While the stupid consumer stops spending he can ring a death knell on all of us.
     
    #13     Jan 13, 2008
  4. You have magical powers dude. You know all about an Internet poster don't you?

    Keep drumming your stupid conclusions and I will keep yanking your eyeballs little clown.
     
    #14     Jan 13, 2008
  5. Your incessant babbling and blame-mongering tell me exactly what is in your portfolio.

    Here is a hint that might save you alot of money in the future:

    http://www.investorwords.com/1641/economic_cycle.html

    economic cycle
    Definition

    Predictable long-term pattern changes in national income. Traditional business cycles undergo four stages: expansion, prosperity, contraction, and recession. After a recessionary phase, the expansionary phase can start again. The phases of the business cycle are characterized by changing employment, industrial productivity, and interest rates. Some economists believe that stock price trends precede business cycle stages.


     
    #15     Jan 13, 2008
  6. Now I understand. I guess telling you a little 'bout me will shed some light onto my views. And I also understand your anger - you're still in the mortgage biz and still in that denial/anger phase.

    I too was in the mortgage business. Did well, and did the right thing. (Which means I made OK money not crazy money) Lost quite a few deals to dirtbags pushing Option Arms. Either way, saw the storm clouds coming and left the business.

    Got a job, back on my feet, and beginning to trade on the side. Not manic mind you - My job takes a lot of my time - but I'm happy with it.

    I left the mortgage business because I knew it was going to go through a massive correction not seen before. I remember the late 80s and the S&L crisis, the RTC.

    And I thought, this is much bigger. Not a few wildcat savings and loans involved here, but global banks - and derivatives. And I thought "HOLY $HIT" this can really destroy the housing industry. (Much more if you ask me)

    Also, I have watched our economy radically change. No more manufacturing, just pushing paper. A share of a company goes up we call it wealth. Gold goes up we call it inflation. Kinda strange.

    We live in strange times. We rely on a middle class that is subjected to the most darwinistic side of capitalism, while those with the most capital - the big banks, privatize their gains and socialize their losses thru debt monetization. And we all pay.

    I'm doing fine - but am extremely uneasy. As Joe Sixpac flounders, we will feel it too. Remember, I left this mortgage biz when I saw so many people on the edge of foreclosure, and I could do nothing to help them.

    I am just a lurker here. Sorry to waste your time. I just visit this site for tips and learning.

    But I'll tell you this. What you guys are doing - and I am envious, may not last. (I'm assuming worst case scenario)

    No one knows how this mess will play out. I'm preparing for the worst, but not letting it change my life either.

    Good luck all.
     
    #16     Jan 13, 2008
  7. In case your reading comprehension lacks, I will give you a visual reference to the economic cycle. It happens like this as sure as the sun rises, to bet against it is not only futile, but can be detrimental to your portfolio. Recognize where we are in the cycle and learn to profit from it. Markets never go one way forever dude.

    [​IMG]
     
    #17     Jan 13, 2008

  8. I have no problem with that economic cycles. Real estate is cyclical and it always comes back and when it comes back it come back with vengeance unseen before- since there is this pent up demand built in, prices zoom and you pull your ejection buttons and eject with profits/
     
    #18     Jan 13, 2008
  9. In your case, it's not difficult.

    LC
     
    #19     Jan 13, 2008
  10. Real estate doesn't correct and rebound that fast, this will play out for awhile before there is a bottom. Check out japans real estate prices for a very good reference to what happens when prices deviate from the mean in a parabolic fashion.

    [​IMG]
     
    #20     Jan 13, 2008