Markets till spring 2007 about

Discussion in 'Economics' started by seleukos, Jun 16, 2006.

  1. seleukos


    June 16, 2006

    The two fundamental points of this newsletter are:

    1)The American stock market is rate driven.
    2) After testing the area of support at 1.24/1.25 (dollars per euro, eur/usd) the euro will turn higher, well beyond 1.30, probably above 1.32/1.33

    Explanations and timing

    American stocks and dollar are related in two ways:

    A) What is good for the dollar, is also good for the Dow Jones.
    This is not the current case: this happens when the demand for dollars is present to buy American stocks. This usually happens when the p/e is very low, when the economy is growing and when the Japanese economy is weak.
    B) Classical scenario: when rates are increasing, the dollar goes up because strangers will put money on deposit with American banks and not into the American stock markets. Moreover American people sell their stocks and put money into more liquid investments.The p/e is higher in this case and there are inflationary symptoms and the Japanese economy is stronger. This is the current case and there is an evidence of an INVERSE relationship between the US dollar and the Dow Jones (Nasdaq etc.)

    We believe that scenario B will probably continue up to the end of October 2006 or just before, where the dollar is stronger and stocks are weaker. Moreover eur/usd will reach 1.25 and possibly 1.24 (these are of course only our opinions) .

    In any case we see Euro/US$ above 1.30 for January 10, 2007, with a weaker US$ and a MODIFICATION of the current scenario from B to A. In this case, from October we should have dollar moving in the same direction as the American stock markets.
    At the same time we should have gold very strong and the silver even stronger than gold, because of higher demand from Asian silver buyers. Also in our opinion there should be for the autumn a slight weakness in the Chinese economy, with oil and copper moving to the downside.

    So there are not bullish perspectives for the end of the year for the American stock market and for dollar, nor for metals and energies on the whole. Euro is perhaps the strongest money now, followed by the swiss franc and pound.

    Good luck.
  2. 2001 Fed starting pumping billions of dollars into bond markets. From there it spread to other asset classes as investors tried to earn more than a pathetic 1% on their money market accounts. Financial firms were the first to see new money (hedge fund boom, etc). Investment boom sparked since cost of capital was so low. Credit spreads compressed because new money bidding up prices on bonds. Money found its way into real estate market. Housing boom circa 2001-2005.

    ~2005 Fed realizes can't pump money into markets forever and either has to slow down money supply growth or wreck economy from inflationary boom.

    2005-now Inflation statistics start to increase as money from early years of the boom start to perculate torwards consumers through home equity loans (rising home prices) and inflationary boom. Consumer prices go up (and energy prices go up too) and housing slows down (loan volume shrinks) because of higher interest rates (supply and demand).

    My $.02 says recession is coming as soon as 5% rates translate into much reduced loan volume and credit contraction (im guessing a year). So capital markets (brokers) will take a dump, consumer retail, and real estate (obviously). Compensation for wall street finance people is starting to peak (another sign). Job market will be hit a few months later.

    Main point is not to focus on interest rate itself, but the money supply growth/contraction that it implies. And EVERY boom is followed by a bust.
  3. Inflation is too high, and I believe more rate hike is needed. I believe the spike of inflation is due to the hot housing market. Making too much cash (debt) available to the public. The rate need to be continue rise to make the housing market in line with salary. This may case a recession (and bring the housing market with it), but I will rather have this short term one in hope to bring price back in line than a personal recession that last forever due to higher price.