..and speaking of ominous signs - My wife and I were on the way to the local building suplies outlet Friday; we were discussing the recent flash-crash. As I stepped out of the car I said to her "We're heading into a deflationary depression.". My bill for 3 bags of gravel - 19.29 . Be afraid.
Article from 15 December 2010: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...120-billion-more-in-capital-moody-s-says.html "Spanish Lenders May Need $120 Billion, Moodyâs Says" Yahoo quotes for 7 of the bigger Spanish banks: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^IBEX,SAN.MC,BBVA.MC,POP.MC,SAB.MC,BKT.MC,BTO.MC,PAS.MC&d=s I note that the $IBEX is very close to support at 9850, which represents approximate lows from 17th, 20th, 27th and 28th Dec Some Spanish banks have been underperforming recently. For example POP is close to a 52-week low, BTO is close to late November lows and SAB is close to a 52-week low as well.
I find this odd. Spanish banks have strict capital requirements that would actually prevented the dire consequences we have seen in other countries regarding mortgages securitizations. As far as I know they didn't have SIV's leading to zip for off balance sheet problems. Might be something else in play. Checking around I found this. Spanish banks spared huge writedowns http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89541f44-d35d-11dc-b861-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz19bMDIpMG
They all seem to be 'special situations' don't they. One offs no doubt. Expect more 'one offs' but of course it's never going to be the bankers fault because 'nobody could have seen it coming'. Max Keiser was funny the other day because he said Wall Street specialises in telling people how smart it is and where the markets are expected to go. Invest with us - we have the handle on things etc. But when the markets do the opposite they all say 'well, nobody can predict the future'
update to this post: IBEX closed at 9865, just above that support level. For what it's worth, IBEX Jan 2011 futures closed slightly below the lows of 17th / 20th / 27th / 28th Dec. Also ignoring the flash crash in the first hour of trading on 27 December, the CAC went below its equivalent lows on an intraday basis.