Repeat post just for the fun of it. In '87 things were fairly regular coming in to the 19th. tests that required 4 to 10 days to do had occurred 4 times leading into the 19TH so mostly every one in boutique type brokers had pulled long trades into cash prior to the 19th using the good opportunities to do planned exits. Full blown application of capital was again possible by the 3rd or 4th of NOV. At that time there was littlesecuritaization going on and quants were not influential to any extent. 5% is 5% and in today's market that is where the similarities draw thin. As we all see one of the largest investments of families is now involved and we had an inflection in JUN06 that ended the the wealth building potential of this large investment of most families. Families have not been saving for quite a while and real income averages have been declining for several years. The inflection on real income came a couple of years into the current administration. The shift from weekly number crunching ended with the exit of O'Neil from Treasury and the second string was brought in then. Prgmatism went to idealism and unreality. So now we are in a situation where on several fronts there is a souring of the econometric variables and considerations. This is true not only for the US but for those throughout the globe and particularly those whose are carrying our debt. The larger picture is there too. The dollar's strength is different than in "87 as well. I map out the legs of the year ahead of the beginning of the year. Things are right on target and the steep leg down we just began is going off the chart as expected. In '87 there was a period of time that was unpleasant for a few months. This is different primarily because it is on a much slower fractal. Today, there is no transparency especially with respect to the securitization and 10Q's and 10K's do not report out appropriately since there is not proper regulation. "Mark to Market" became a myth because the meaningful markets related to that wnet sour by bcoming illiquid and legislators and regulators allow such opaqueness to continue. There are all kinds of feedback loops in econometric models. Driect; indirect; induced and sustitution; review them. The positive one's are where the problem lays currently; they are properly regulated nor had they been efforced. I count this as a hazard from JUN06 as the landmark infection point. We are at a point about 1/3 through. So we are still in the acceleration phase in an even harmonic step function. A 5% step occurred today. These contemporary hits are fantastic. As you can see, staffs realy realy fucked up some operations and the scavengers have their minions doing DD all the time. The comment on reverse diligence today by the CEO who bought MER was priceless and trite. Some what after the 1/2 way mark coming up, we will reach the end of acceleration to the beginning of deceleration point. Then we only have a little less than half way to go to begin what will be called in the future: "The Recovery". Obviously, these are the best of times for making money as a parasite which I am. A large ATR is what I like best since now, unlike '87, we have real liquidity with which to play with a neutral bias. I would say most traders are screwed and don't know whether to shit or go blind. As they blowout steadily, first units then tens, etc., the games will be more evident and the we can steady down and grind out the bucks for years from this added opportunity.
This isn't 87, 29, 98, 79 or whatever else you want to compare it too. This is 2008 and the Fed just said that you can take a hot steamy dump wrap it in tin foil pour a little light fluid set it on fire, drop it in front of Bernankes door and knock. they will take it as an asset. Bernanke and Paulson are both wondering if they are going down like Eva and Adolf, huddled up in the basement of Treasury late one night running the printing presses on generators because the utility only takes Euros or gold. "Ben hold me, I don't want to die alone" whispers Paulson into Big Bens ear.
So most traders "don't know whether to shit or go blind" but you'll be raking in the bucks? If those poor unfortunates follow you, will you lead them to the land of milk and honey? BTW... speaking of boasts... how'd your scheme to turn $10 thousand into $1 million in 100 days turn out? Back in Oct 06 you said you were going to post updates on ET but I don't recall seeing any. What happened? "we'll take a $10,000 account and we'll see how long it takes to make it to 100,000... and then we'll take the $100,000 account and make it to a million... with this group. and we're doing it now and i'm starting tonight... at approximately four times the rate i need to do it, to get it done in 100 days" http://www.mediafire.com/?1gi2qygm3yh
not exactly....u short the open for a quick ride, catch the reverse, ride the wave until the fed cuts 100BP, and finish with the best day ever....and dow finishes +350!!! Still looking for this 'best' day ever. lol
Just ride on bail out for sometime prior to this markets realize the real effect of the crisis and starts dumping to see high 7000's