Oh, right. This is the guy who doesn't believe in the concept of trend, except as an after-effect, but then starts a thread saying the market's gotta be rigged ... Pretty much speaks for itself. I
Don, Could you give people an idea of the type of training you guys give new traders nowadays? What "non-directional" trading/training do you offer your traders, for example, and who's teaching these techniques and what rate of success are they achieving? Thanks!
Well ....crap....why didnt i think of that? Of course!!! thanks, Don, for pointing out that "little" fact. Now i feel (even more) stupid. Jeeezz, thanks Don. a prosperous 2008 to you, your family and traders. And ... thanks for helping to teach me over the past 2.5 yrs. rj
You need to start hanging out with a guy that goes by the name of Market Surfer, I'm sure you two could find much to talk about. I
Why traders gravitate to patterns/trends is beyond me. How do you know an ascending triangle won't turn into a bear wedge once it breaks out? Should you buy the move above resistance or sell the drop below support. Or should you sell resistance or buy support? So there you have 4 choices, or a 25% chance of winning. Now add the fact that the next tick is a simple flip of a coin and that reduces your odds of winning on a pattern to 12.5%, or .25 x .50. So you say an ascending triangle is bullish because it's in an uptrend? How do you know that doesn't signal the end of the trend? Trends and patterns are just an illusion that suckers most into believing that technical analysis actually works. The market is nothing more than a random number generator. Most people will dismiss this theory because they believe randomness can't be traded. Oh yes it can. Don't believe what those college professors told you.
Interesting point, but it seems to me that the market is naturally caped on the upside but artificially supported on the downside by concerted action between Fed and Wall St. Most of the non program volume is hedge funds and they have a vested interest in using that buying power to keep the market up for bonus and distribution purposes. Joe six pack is being told by every mass market financial website out there that things are fine and he should think long term if he is really worried about recession he should buy using dollar cost averaging, so we have yet to see mutual fund redemption driven selling. However, there are wild cards like equities as an inflation hedge or Soveriegn funds. Oh yes, if you believe nothing is ever rigged I suggest you trade for a while longer. If I lose money to a manipulation I blame myself for misreading the manipulation, not the fact that there are people manipulating. Manipulation is what I am looking for because the probabilities are better. I do take issue with policy maker insider trading/tipping as per Bernanke and his cuts though.
... and there are others here who say the market has a trend that can be defined with 100% probability ... what is unknown is the probability of that trend continuing. But even when it changes, it is just a simple matter of reversing your trades. I