Markets are not Random

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by MarkBrown, Sep 16, 2018.

  1. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    Markets are not random, just passengers "retail" are random as they come and go.

    Underneath it all, peal away the "retail" and there is a market with exact intent.

    You have to filter through outside "noise" to understand the structure beneath.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    If you really want to screw with one of the yutz/chuckleheads who preach this dreck, just ask them a single question:

    "What's the single best estimator of today's market closing price?"

    and when they respond, "Well, yesterday's closing price, duh."

    You respond, "Bingo. Then I guess the market is not exactly random, is it." :banghead:


    ((Footnote for numbers nerds or for those who actually want to escape from the "Markets are random" idiocy.....
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_and_identically_distributed_random_variables

    Market returns can be easily argued to be random.
    Volatility, likewise: easy.
    But to portray markets as random is to dance IID conditions right out the freakin' door.
    "Just say no."))
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2018
  3. Handle123

    Handle123

    So if a small herd of cows(COMMERCIALS) gets into the path of this train, hundreds of these people(RETAIL) come crashing down but the cows(COMMERCIAL) profits again. That's about right and do it again.

    Cool pic.
     
    beginner66 likes this.
  4. Palindrome

    Palindrome

    There are two places I love to visit... Key West Florida and Mumbai India. Something about that humid thick air in Mumbai that I just can't get enough of.
     
  5. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    actually the train is the "commercials" the people are "retail" the cows would be steaks for the members of the exchange.
     
    SunTrader likes this.
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Mmmm steak. Though I doubt you can order one in Mumbai.
     
  7. themickey

    themickey

    Can you imagine the scene if that train had a head on with another obstacle. Not uncommon.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_rail_accidents

    So can we assume retail hop on the trading train thinking its a gravvy train with big smiles on their faces and a chirpy disposition while blithely unaware of the risks?
     
    MarkBrown and Overnight like this.
  8. Overnight

    Overnight

    Themickey wins the ET least-used-word-of-the-month award. Blithely. That is awesomeness.
     
  9. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    exactly as we witness here on et lol ....
     
  10. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    It's not Random, but it's also not predictable because there are a lot of variables which change frequently and you don't know pretty much any of them!
     
    #10     Sep 16, 2018