Markets are impossible to predict

Discussion in 'Trading' started by farmerjohn1324, Jan 8, 2020.

  1. %%
    Exactly;
    but since we knew it has gone down>> more than 80%,past bears, its not a crapshoot @ all. EVery thing going up?? NOT TSLA, LOL, not as of yesterday, or todays open. and I doubt any trader or investors puts 100% in any one ETF.

    And draWdowns in QQQ or SPY are not losses, if done right ;
    especially with tax cuts, general gov regs cut, FED friendly+ 2000 has no SPXL , for diversification. I thought we were still in the bear when it stalled about 52 weeks ago@50 dma; so it can pay to be late or early in QQQ or SPXL or about anything but TSLA, still going down today@10 cetral time. NOT a prediction, or tock ETF tip LOL
     
    #191     Jan 15, 2020
    ironchef likes this.
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    How do you predict geopolitics?

    What sources should I go to to learn to predict? e.g., how do I predict a Trump win and how do I predict his presidency is tied to the biggest bull market in history? When he got elected, many thought the market would crash.

    I want to learn your methodology.
     
    #192     Jan 15, 2020
  3. ironchef

    ironchef

    I only agree with 99.99% of what you said (the 0.001% is on TSLA :finger:).

    I think there is still a positive chance TSLA will be a long term winner like AMZN. %%Not a prediction. :D:cool::)
     
    #193     Jan 15, 2020
    murray t turtle likes this.
  4. maxinger

    maxinger

    STOP predicting the Market
    AND
    START to focus on the chart !!!!
     
    #194     Jan 15, 2020
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. %% OK;
    but really its much worse that that= if one gets on the wrong side of the main trend x3. So just make sure you find a slightly better than average trend or a good/excellent trend.

    And keep good records, junk silver, gold, junkTSLA may not go parabolic all the time LOL.
    There are so many ways to rip one off, cash silver of gold may work well, but most advise NO MORE than 10% max of silver , gold.TSLA could easy go to zero/goose egg; or worse than zero if leveraged.........................................................................................................Even with junk silver or gold coins[cash]; they ripped off some investors traders badly on the high priced sealed stuff, by changing the measure/ appraisal, some years ago:caution::caution::caution:,:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:.
     
    #195     Jan 15, 2020
  6. Posted 30 minutes after the Open (would have known sooner, but was behind on my data update for today):

    "Main scenario for today is a repeat of yesterday.

    I'm thinking new ATHs (got them as I was typing this), but a sell down later in the session.

    Should be seeing 3300 today."


    Actual high for today was 3299. Then sold off in the afternoon like yesterday - as predicted.

    Markets are impossible to predict.

    ES Journal - 2019/2020
     
    #196     Jan 15, 2020
  7. Posted 52 minutes after the Open (I knew this one at the Open, but posting on ET is not a priority during opening hours):

    "Another day and another all time high.

    And I think we're set to make new highs by the Close. 3315 sounds just about right. Maybe even 3320. Would be surprised to see us both dip and close below 3291.

    After two days of fabulous action today will most likely be a slow grinder and snoozer..."


    2nd update 12 minutes prior to 12:00:

    "I'm sampling some updated statistical data and the output is interesting.

    Basically, my data is saying there's a 99 % chance we won't trade below 3299 today. In fact - there's a 90 % chance we'll close above 3305.

    The bad news trading wise is that this today will probably not very worthwhile day trading."


    The actual High today was 3317,75 and the day was indeed a slow grinder.

    Markets are impossible to predict. Or maybe not. :)

    ES Journal - 2019/2020
     
    #197     Jan 16, 2020
  8. RRY16

    RRY16

    Post a real trade with a blotter and quit pimping!
     
    #198     Jan 16, 2020
    Overnight likes this.
  9. For you? No thanks.
     
    #199     Jan 17, 2020
    themickey likes this.
  10. themickey

    themickey

    If you read RRY16's posts, there's an uncanny resemblance to Desterio, except RRY16 avoids trading talk.
     
    #200     Jan 17, 2020