Markets are impossible to predict

Discussion in 'Trading' started by farmerjohn1324, Jan 8, 2020.

  1. Zodiac4u

    Zodiac4u

    3. (a)Technical indicators don't move markets. Fundamentals do.What do you think would happen to NUGT if the unemployment rate rose several months in a row?

    Neither technical or Fundamentals move markets, its the participants that use them that move markets. Technical trading works, just like, being on the right side of fundamentals works. Technically speaking NUGT looks like a great trade-able stock.:cool:
     
    #171     Jan 12, 2020
    _eug_ likes this.
  2. _eug_

    _eug_

    You need to study the charts yourself to determine where your premise for a trade is really wrong and what price has to do to invalidate your premise at these levels.
     
    #172     Jan 12, 2020
    Zodiac4u likes this.
  3. Sounds like trying to read tea leaves and pretending it's real.

    Is that a fish and a scorpion in the sky at night? Lol.
     
    #173     Jan 12, 2020
  4. _eug_

    _eug_

    Like I said before, it is up to you what you want to believe. I am not here to argue about whether technical trading works or not. You said its impossible to predict moves in the market and I posted some examples of how I would use my method to capture possible moves. If you think that I am being fooled by randomness then OK. Good luck with trading based on whatever method you believe works.
     
    #174     Jan 12, 2020
    farmerjohn1324 likes this.
  5. I'm waiting for anyone to tell me a combination of indicators to back test that works even 60% of the time.
     
    #175     Jan 12, 2020
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. _eug_

    _eug_

    I say forgot indicators. The MACD I used is just to illustrate what slowing momentum looks like which you can easily see in the price bars themselves.

    Pull up a chart for a few markets that you like to watch and look at what happens to price. Try to see if there are any hints to the left for where turning points in the now happen. Dont just look at 5 min charts like most day traders do. Use all your timeframes. Monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, 30min, 5 min. Everything fits together. Things are not always as random as they seem.

    Do this for months or more likely years and you will see patterns. Then you need to develop your own trading methodology around what you have observed. This shit is not easy man.

    If I knew what is required when I was starting out, I probably would have gone into another business.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2020
    #176     Jan 12, 2020
  7. Real Money

    Real Money

    Speculation drives technicals, and is riding on top of (front running) the fundamental move.

    This is why technicals matter.
     
    #177     Jan 12, 2020
    Zodiac4u and _eug_ like this.
  8. notagain

    notagain

    14ema cross 50ema and wait for price oscillator to be more than +.5 or less than-.5
    no trades if price oscillator whipsawing 0
    Screen Shot 2020-01-12 at 11.29.31 PM.png
     
    #178     Jan 12, 2020
  9. Does that work for everything? I'll test it when I have the chance.

    Stocks, funds, currencies, futures?
     
    #179     Jan 12, 2020
  10. Real Money

    Real Money

    Here's a similar thing. The only difference is that I use a different type of average (it's an inertia study). Then I put two more averages on the detrended subchart.

    ThinkScript is underrated. <<<

    RISK_ON__RISK_OFF.png
     
    #180     Jan 12, 2020