Markets are impossible to predict

Discussion in 'Trading' started by farmerjohn1324, Jan 8, 2020.

  1. schizo

    schizo

    This is today's intraday price between ES and GC. It looks pretty "inverse correlated" in my eyes. This has been happening more often lately than I care to repeat.

    [​IMG]
     
    #151     Jan 10, 2020
    murray t turtle and bone like this.
  2. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    I had a company 25years, not all it's cracked up to be, max stress, very little to show for it, prefer trading, although I'm semi retired and trade for fun.
     
    #152     Jan 10, 2020
  3. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    Hedges cancel out profits, kinda pointless, never trying to control, merely working out best way to go along for the ride and doing okay :)
     
    #153     Jan 10, 2020
  4. bone

    bone

    I understand completely, and that’s the problem with Inter Market correlations (and inverse correlations) where there isn’t a sound fundamental similarity with the underlying. They work until they don’t.

    For example, in terms of positive Gold correlators - there’s a difference between Gold vs Silver and Gold and Bond Yields or Gold and the AUD or Gold and the VIX. Gold vs Silver is going to be much more reliable than Gold vs AUD even though both have very high positive statistical correlations.

     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2020
    #154     Jan 10, 2020
    murray t turtle and comagnum like this.
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    Mmm. How about GC and DX (ICE)? I have heard that's a sweet one.
     
    #155     Jan 10, 2020
  6. bone

    bone

    The AUD and the CHF are much better positive correlators to Gold as compared to the USD.
     
    #156     Jan 10, 2020
  7. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    Sorry, I missed the quote when you said you bought it in September of 2019. Instead, I read this other below quote by you.

    Simply, your reference to "this news" I thought in error you were talking about the President Trump ordering the hit on the Iranian General and that you were implying that was the news in reference.

    Regardless, the story looks like the mafia sitting at the table discussing whom to whack for threatening their business operations.

    I'm surprise he hasn't order a missile hit on Nancy Pelosi resident home. He's paranoid like that Tony Montana (Al Pacino) in Scarface. :wtf:

    By the way, here's a funny muse of Al Pacino talking to President Trump...



    wrbtrader
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2020
    #157     Jan 10, 2020
    Real Money and comagnum like this.
  8. themickey

    themickey

    From my research results, gold is correlated + silver, negative DX, negative SP500, + Mining Index, + AUD, etc at different cycle times.
    So in other words, in terms of correlation, it is unreliable to correlate gold to anything because for a short season it correlates, then it doesn't.
    Atm it's negatively correlated to SP500 and positively correlated to Silver, but re DX it's swinging in the wind, however once DX takes a nose dive below $96, I expect to see neg. corr.
    Best way to trade gold is on its trends hitting round numbers, forget correlations.
     
    #158     Jan 10, 2020
  9. %%
    No wonder;
    they' re completely different markets. Any kind of correlation just means someone is watching both of them or in some case trading/investing them. DOW is really not the same market, @ all as QQQ...............................................
     
    #159     Jan 11, 2020
  10. schizo

    schizo

    Man, you people need to do some catching up with Intermarket Analysis. There are many books out there. Do some reading over the weekend.
     
    #160     Jan 11, 2020
    wrbtrader and murray t turtle like this.