Markets and randomness

Discussion in 'Trading' started by yabz, Oct 14, 2002.

  1. or spontaneous-organic-discord - depending on what mood she's in..
    #11     Oct 14, 2002
  2. Her moves are in complete and utter harmony being that she serves as nothing more than a mirror reflection of our collective actions and non-actions.

    The discord is only a matter of a traders subjective perception...

    BTW; I am going to kick your ass next weekend, Publias has a big trade in the wings :)
    #12     Oct 14, 2002
  3. jaan


    correct, but this only applies to your very narrow definition of "movement".

    in effect, the only thing your test demonstrates is that "if you only know today's price of a security, then there's no way to predict tomorrow's price with better than random probability". this does not mean, however, that there's no way to predict tomorrow's price given addional information (such as the prevailing trend, resistance/support areas, or breaking news).

    or put it another way: i can come up with dozens of numeric sequences that appear as random to you-name-it tests, however, which one can predict with 100% accuracy, given additional information not "seen" by the tests.

    an algorithmic random number generator would be one such example: the output appears random, but is really 100% deterministic sequence, given the algorithm and the seed.

    - jaan
    #13     Oct 14, 2002
    #14     Oct 14, 2002
  5. Aphi,

    I've found that a lot times, tick by tick (stock) has best predictability. while Certain times it seems unpredictable to me. This is why I scalp.
    #15     Oct 14, 2002
  6. nitro


    Brother Pussy,

    One more alias?


    #16     Oct 14, 2002
  7. Where does one find all these "successful mechanical systems - of which there are many"?
    #17     Oct 14, 2002
  8. nitro



    nitro :D
    #18     Oct 14, 2002
  9. Cracker Jack boxes ...
    #19     Oct 14, 2002
  10. Thanks for the hot tip! That's the one place I haven't looked. Are they in every box or is it one of those "many will try - 5 will win" giveaways? Do I need to collect all 10,000 - with one in each individually sealed box? Oh well, I guess I'll spend a fortune on Cracker Jack boxes to add to my bookcase. Thanks again. :)
    #20     Oct 14, 2002