Jim Rogers was in the original Market Wizards book and he's done incredibly well over the last few years. He made a brilliant macro call on commodities (starting a commodity fund in 1998!). He also bought Chinese B shares when they were in the toilet, he called the bond market bottom last summer. The main fallacy in trading is that everyone thinks its a level playing field. If you took 100 people at random off the street, the vast majority would not have the personalities to trade successfully. I think successful trading takes more discipline than losing weight for example. Everyone knows how to lose weight (diet and exercise) but no one does it. In the EMT and academia world, everyone would be thin and vibrant. Even a great mind like Soros caved in and bought tech in 1999. It took absolute raw and unrelenting discipline to pass up tech completely (i.e. Buffett). Guys like PTJ, Neiderhoffer, Buffet, Soros, Rogers, they all have a similar personality. Staunchly independent thinkers, loners, mavericks. That's their main competitive advantage.
My understanding for some time has been Buffett is an entrepreneur/investor, never a trader. His style has been to buy poorly performed and undervalued companies that have potential to become cash cows and then change them to cash cows through direct and remote management by controlling their cash flow. I'm afraid he did not involve any dom.com in the past because he knew very well that almost all Dom.coms would not become cash cows within many years (and he was right), and he himself could not possibly change them to cash cows. Just 2 cents!
Q When I enter the inevitable losing streak that befalls every investor, I pick up The Alchemy and revisit Mr. Soros's campaigns. Studying how he coped with adversity provides an excellent tutorial for breaking the string of negative behaviors that occasionally besets any investor. Winning is infectious. --- Paul Tudor Jones (The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros, Foreword) UQ Q I propose an experiment. I shall record the views that guide me in my investment decisions at the present time and I shall revise them on a real-time basis while the book is in preparation. I shall terminate the experiment when the book goes to the printer and the reader will be able to judge the results. This will provide a practical test of the value, if any, of my approach. It will also provide an insight into the decision-making process of one market participant. --- George Soros (The Alchemy of Finance, page 143) UQ
Buffett has stated in many interviews and articles about why he never bought into tech. He buys companies like Coke and Dairy Queen because he looks at competitive advantage and where the firm will be in 10 years (you can be pretty certain about where Gillette will be in 5 or 10 years). But with tech, he never saw what the sustainable competitive advantage would be for firms in the future. Where is CSCO or MSFT going to be? So, he stays away.
A few things re. Buffet: The other primary reason he never went into tech companies is because that's beyond his circle of confidence. He tends to make it a point to only invest in companies that he understands. He believes that if you don't understand where the company's revenue is coming from, you shouldn't invest in it. He also tends to look for companies that have strong and consistent fundamentals that are currently out of favor with the public or just undervalued in general.
I beleive I am a market wizard.... But, No one ever knows everything clearly, its all about odds!!!! And yes overall they do work!!!