Market Under Dstribution....

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Jan 11, 2007.

  1. My spec stuff is a sea of wondrous green.

    My Industrial plays and stuff that hinges on the economy not so good. Charts looking bearish.

    This whole kit and caboodle seems to hang on transports and brokerages right now. With Tech being the clear leader. Will the S&P be able to confirm a breakout saddled with energy & industrials? Iffy at best-
     
    #11     Jan 16, 2007
  2. you are right..


    my apologies:D
     
    #12     Jan 16, 2007
  3. duard

    duard

    I like your enthusiasm. Are you gonna tell us when the party is over?
     
    #13     Jan 16, 2007
  4. CNBC highlighting option activity makes me real nervous. It's a mini sign of a top.
     
    #14     Jan 16, 2007
  5. Well no doubt today & this week we see some heavy tech distribution. We must now think back to just a week ago when the mantra was it's all tech> look at the Nasdaq, it's out of the gate 2 plus % while the Dow and the s&p lag. Etc. What does it mean when rather than have the other indices march up to join the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq nosedives and immediately returns to norm?

    To me it's symbolic of a forthcoming flat market.

    But it's just too easy. Kramer comes on CNBC today and sells tech out. He's negative now. Do you really want to be on that side of the fence? His reasoning was seasonal. Everyone has been chirping about how healthy it would be to have a pullback. Well now we have it- tech earnings have stolen the scene this week- but IBM, EMC, FFIV, ADSK all to come, soon the expansion of price will come in play again. Even with Apple the Tech Beacon lowballing guidance- The overall PE of the market could still advance a notch or two, providing nice returns. I just don't believe this run is over. Retail is feeling ready... I'm eyeing beaten down BEBE.
     
    #15     Jan 18, 2007
  6. Anyone notice the BEBE upgrade this morning. I did.

    I don't know where to start with this market or where to end- but I just don't feel this correction has any significance. The REAL story in the economy and when to get truly scared has to do with the sub prime loan market and weather that shakiness is spreading to other areas like retail. A hard look at BBY earnings report shows more and more money being used for their little loans gone bad and indeed COF took a plunge and I'm short Mastercard. What has happened to America with all this debt everywhere? The other major thing to watch is any REAL emerging market meltdown and any significant hedge funds going under. So far so good on most fronts. Lets talk earnings. Alright they suck. But this next move in the market we have been told over and over again is NOT about earnings so much as it about PRICE expansion. If we pull off a goldylocks landing that's what will happen. Housing must stay firm a second big leg down would panic people.

    So why then the sell off? I have two ideas. One is as we head into another rousing State Of The Union address by our fearless never even been in a fistfight of a leader... we have to leave open the door that the market is sending Bush a message about the War. Enough Is Enough. Blackhawk helicopters down, more money that you could ever believe being pissed away day after day after day...

    The other reason and I hate to say this being a democrat but in the short time that the dems have been in control there has been a whole lot of bad vibes thrown at the business community, from talk of extra taxation on the oil co's to fund alternative energy research, to a crack down on excessive CEO pay and perks. I don't have a problem with any of these but all of this in just 15 days of being in power, does make one wonder what the hell a full year of this is going to look like...~ stoney
     
    #16     Jan 22, 2007
  7. piezoe

    piezoe

    Logically we should have a 6-8% "correction" in the S&P sometime in 2007, most likely by June. This would take us to somewhere in the vacinity of 1350 or a little lower. However, i don't count on logic, i just look to see what the market is doing and react accordingly. We haven't broken the up-channel yet, just threatening too. If you're anything other than intraday, probably wise to be a little circumspect here.
     
    #17     Jan 22, 2007
  8. when the Dow hits 4,030,239.
    yipee yahooooooooo!
     
    #18     Jan 22, 2007
  9. Hurt by recent technology weakness, the Nasdaq has edged under a notable support point.
    Specifically, the Nasdaq edged under its 50-day moving average on Monday, marking just the second time it's closed under that level since mid-August.
    Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials remain much stronger by comparison. Each index closed Monday within striking distance of multi-year highs. That means despite localized technology weakness, the broad-market uptrend remains on firm footing.
    The S&P 500's hourly chart serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks. As the chart illustrates, the S&P edged under first support at 1,424 on Monday, and subsequently observed that area as resistance.
    The pullback places it at one-week lows, but still well within view of multi-year highs. Monday's close of 1,422 came in about nine points shy of a six-year closing high.
    In a similar move, the Dow industrials also pulled back on Monday. In the process, it violated support around 12,485 and subsequently observed that area as resistance. So like the S&P, the Dow has pulled back to one-week lows, but also holds well within view of record territory. Monday's close of 12,477 came in 105 points under an all-time closing high.

    Yet the Nasdaq is where things have looked slightly uglier of late. In recent sessions, it's violated two notable technical levels - former support at 2,455 and the 50-day moving average. And in each instance, the Nasdaq subsequently observed former support as resistance. Not bullish price action.

    Widening the view to six months adds perspective to the Nasdaq's recent price activity. After spiking to six-year highs early last week, the index has pulled in noticeably. As the chart illustrates, the Nasdaq closed Monday at 2,431, or about four points under its 50-day moving average. That means Monday marked just the second close below the 50-day moving average since the current uptrend took hold in mid-August. (The first instance was by a single point on Dec. 22, the day before the holiday break.)
    Still, the index has well-defined support bracketed by the late-November low of 2,390 and the April high of 2,375. Barring a decisive break under that area, the Nasdaq's primary uptrend should probably be given the benefit of the doubt.

    Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains much stronger than the Nasdaq.
    While Monday's losses pulled the Dow into its six-month trendline, the blue-chip benchmark holds well within striking distance of record territory.

    And the S&P 500 is now the strongest major benchmark. After spiking from support around 1,404, the index has sustained its gains, establishing a tight range near multi-year highs. At Monday's close, the S&P held just nine points from a six-year closing high.

    *The bigger picture> Within the past week, the Retail Index, the Health Care Index, the Broker/Dealer Index and the Cyclical Index have all staged decisive breaks to all-time highs.
    Each group's breakout has been marked by consecutive closes above the 20-day Bollinger bands, suggesting the broader markets remain on relatively firm footing.
    And while the Nasdaq did edge under its 50-day moving average on Monday - marking just the second such occurrence since mid-August - it did so on its lightest volume total this year!!!!! Barring a decisive break under that 2,375-to-2,390 area, the Nasdaq's primary uptrend should probably be given the benefit of the doubt.
    Take everything together, and the path of least resistance remains higher. Despite the Nasdaq's deeper-than-expected pullback, the broad-market backdrop remains bullish....
     
    #19     Jan 24, 2007
  10. Interesting day folks! I think honestly it's good. Had we gapped open and the Nasdaq put on a quick 20 or so and then gave it all back I'd be really freaking right now. I'd rather have a doubting market one that takes several good earnings reports to get it going, than one that over celebrates at the slightest bit of good news.
    Seeing steel stocks put on a 10% week has of course made me positive on the overall economy and angry that I don't own any at the moment.

    It looks like we have a longer-term cycle high due towards the end of next week. For now it looks like consolidate and work higher until some news upsets the tape. The fact the S&P held 1422 support left open the option for a push to new highs and that is what we have. At this point failing to reach the 1448-1455 Fibonacci target zone will go down as a major disappointment. The pattern of the S&P 500 is a small breakout. With the powerful move the listed indices are all on daily buy signals and weekly buy signals were given too. The NASD continues to lag and that may prove more important going forward. For now, the new weekly buy signals extend the time spans from the last weekly sell signal even further. Monday's lows are now the key levels for the weekly sell signals. The next longer-term cycle high and turn date is February 4 and we are approaching a secondary cycle momentum peak near the weekend. Recently market highs have fallen between the momentum peak and the actual turn date. With this consideration, the renewed rally effort is well positioned to carry into the FOMC meeting next Wednesday on the 31st...
     
    #20     Jan 25, 2007