Market refuses to go down

Like I said it doesn't take much for this market to lose a 10% in a week or 2, markets are completely overbought and could even go higher, but when the tide turns and people start to step away thats when everything falls apart. Just like the tech bubble, the dot com bubble, the housing bubble, every things always ends with a bubble and a pop. This to me is a bubble in the making, you dont need to new highs on the s&p or dow to signify a bubble now a days, this is a true bubble in the making as the printing presses run full force and tax payers dollars take care of any risk placed in the market. Remember when the dow was above 12k and everyone was cheering for joy, 13k came and eventually 14k, I bet if you had heard the fools talking about the stocks than they would have convinced everyone to get long, of course the 50%+ drop came soon after and everyone fell for it. How anyone can believe the markets are going to continue there run and not look back is fooling themselves. The credit crisis is far from over!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Agreed. And in the future it will get worse that what we have already seen. The only problem is, we have no idea how high it's going to run in the meantime. That's why anyone who tries to trade off of fundamentals is nothing but a fool - they are completely irrelevant.

Right now here is how I see it:

There are two powerful forces in this market that are very strongly biased towards pushing things to the upside. The first is the government, which wants to paint a nice picture of economic recovery. The second is the big investment firms, who want to end the year on a high note so they can all pocket some massive bonuses. They don't give a flying crap what happens after that, but in the meantime that's what they want to see happen. Does anyone seriously believe that people at these firms aren't going to do everything humanly possible to keep this market afloat to the end of the year so they can get paid? That they would allow a 50% rise to happen in mid-year, then just see it all evaporate in the last few months? They are going to pull out all the stops to make sure that this doesn't happen.

This doesn't mean that they will be successful in their attempts, but when powerful forces are consipiring to push the market strongly in one direction for their own selfish reasons, you have to be careful, especially when there are only a few months left in the year. We'll see what happens.

 

High probability the US equities are near the yearly peak and will turn lower within the following week.

 

I reduced my position by 90% over the last few months (quite a bit today). Even if it falls by 15%, I will take that loss on my one-tenth size and gladly rebuild on position. Sometime tells me it might take a lot of patience though...

 

if they want to get bonuses pace of gains should decline

10% gain each month
we may reach all time highs by the end of the year

the market will become unmanageable bubble and would pop any moment if this risk orgy don't stop very soon

 

They're going to get bonuses based on this year's performance, regardless of how bad it is for everybody down the line that another bubble has been created. From the reports, the risk orgy hasn't stopped in the least - in fact, the banks are even more brazen now that they know that the stupid federal government is going to bail them out for their mistakes. They are focused on this year's gains, nothing more. Most of them couldn't care less if they ruin the economy.

 

END OF THE DAY MELTUP IS COMING, I CAN FEEL IT NOW.


Usually when the market is down 20 points around 3:30pm they rally it up to a plus 15 or 30, now that the dow is up 55 points it will be no problem closing it 75-100 points higher. Get ready for liftoff, go long and don't worry, they have you taken care of by 4pm closing time.

 

So many in experienced traders here posting there reasons why the market should go down. The only thing I can think of is they ar not in the market but want to get in if it would only drop.

I felt the same way in 2003. But I learned from that experience. You just have to hold your nose and jump in. I think AA is a great buy. It’s just lifting off its 200 dma. I also think they will beat there earnings est due to low natural gas, as nat gas is a huge factor in there production.

 

AA chart, I had a position in CHK it was also lifting of it's 200 dma, I sold to early.

 

I meant with this kind of gains it may pop before the new year

bubbles get faster now
oil bubble from 70 to 150 developed and popped in just 9 months

I fully expect stock bubble will be done sooner