Market reaction to Saddams capture/death...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DisciplinedHedg, Jul 28, 2003.

  1. Any opinions?

    Alot of the buying "feels" like it is related to the inevitable demise of Saddam.

    Anyone else got a feel where the market is gonna move on this news. Fox News is reporting they are less than 24 hours behind his trail (sounds familiar though) and heavily raiding his previous hideouts.

    Just a matter of time? Just a matter of time before we breakout of SP 1015? Bears get crushed again? Or sell the news and marks short term buying capulation?
  2. Not much effect in the long term. The market is now concentrated on the economy more than the war news. But it might surge 5-6 handles during the day.
  3. 5-6 handles? Seems like the 2 sons generated almost that much upside. Would seem Saddams official end would be greeted with more euphoria than that.

    Obviously, it would have no substantial effect long term. He's as good as gone. But the peace of mind. Our economy and market recently is all about confidence and perception, as ridiculous as it gets sometimes.

  4. jasrlew


    I think it would create the Christmas effect of knowing the present before you get it and having to open it and act surprised. I think its already priced in.
  5. Ditch


    This market is awfully congested at the moment, so a breakout could be around the corner. saddam's capture might trigger it.
  6. ttrader


    Better let him go, where can he hide ... ?

  7. ttrader


    BTW, the market ALWAYS prices in current events, did the market ever price in events, that aren't current ????

  8. jasrlew


    I'm gonna change my mind and agree with Ditch.
  9. 40Deuce


    it 'seems' as if the demise of the sons caught the market somewhat off-guard (when it was reported on MSNBC) . . . whereas it 'seems' as if the market is expecting Saddam's capture/demise any day now
  10. Such as it was the day of the fall of the Saddam H.'s statue
    in Iraqi Times Square, the market had reached a euphoric high
    that day, then just as the 20 ton hunk of metal came crashing did the stock market.

    The idea of the herd here was buy into an ongoing push to capture the flag. Then once it is over, reality sets in and people
    realize that the real threat is the failing economy of the U.S. and quickly decide to take their profits as focus changes to the new objective.

    Once we capture or kill S.H., then we'll have a selloff.
    Almost testing the prior significant lows then, consolidation as
    the American government turns the audiences eyes to North

    Then Up we go again, as the Feds put the pedal to the floor on the war machine.

    ah, at least thats my $1 bid.

    #10     Jul 28, 2003