Market Profile Plus by bolter

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by bolter, Jan 31, 2006.

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  1. bolter

    bolter

    Good weekend? Excellent! I always like Monday mornings - starting with a clean slate and the week ahead harbours all sorts of wonderful possibilties.

    Here's my levels for today:

    ES
    UVA=1269.50 POC=1268.25 LVA=1265.50

    YM
    UVA=10840 POC=10815 LVA=10805

    ER2
    UVA=728.60 POC=726.20 LVA=723.80

    Looking at my charts and the current Globex quotes I think the ES will be my opening play. If you study the above VP chart you'll notice that the 1265-75 area (roughly) is where the market is "facilitating trade", ie: where value is currently. Unless there is news or long term traders step into the market we should trade in this range today. So you probably want to be a buyer at the low end and a seller at the upper end of the range.

    So here's my preferred scenario at this stage. We're currently going to open just below the POC and leave a small gap up. Unless there is follow through strength at the open I will short around, or even just above the POC, betting that the gap will be closed with a stop above the UVA. Since we're so close to my entry point I will not send the order in advance, I want to control my entry. The gap should get filled and that will put us right at the LVA. I'll then look to reverse my position just below the LVA and wait for a run-up to the POC and UVA, taking profit according to the action. I'll start my stop and yesterdays LOD and work it from there.

    That sounds like a plan - let's see what happens.
     
    #51     Feb 6, 2006
  2. Good luck today!
    BTW, what time is it on your side of the planet?
    PT
     
    #52     Feb 6, 2006
  3. bolter

    bolter

    Thanks PT - you too!

    I'm GMT+8 so it's 10:55pm. Time that most normal people are in bed snuggling with the wife - preferrably you're own.
     
    #53     Feb 6, 2006
  4. bolter

    bolter

    Decidely uneventful trading today on the ES with the market "rotating" or "bracketing" around 1268 all day. We only ventured outside the VA once, around 2:00pm. Actually this probe lower was reasonably important because we retetsted Friday's low, which held, and this brought some buyers into the market and we rallied 5 points. This was around 1264, at the bottom of the longer term VA I mentioned yesterday. This reinforces the importance to this level in the longer term picture. Almost a battleline between bulls and bears.

    My opening call was for the market to pop up, trade down to close the gap and then head back the UVA - which was pretty much what happened. I got my short in at the UVA after the initial buying was done and we hit my target right at the bottom of the gap. I was looking to get a long entry at the LVA for the ride back up but we failed to make it by a tick so I missed the trade. In retrospect I was getting greedy, I should have just reversed at the gap - but even then I may not have been filled. Oh well - it was a good call regardless. Quite often a gap fill will immediately bring in interest and the market turns on a dime.

    Here's my chart for the ES:
    [​IMG]

    Days like today are tough for anybody to trade, I don't care how good they are. Because I had a plan I had 2 potential winning trades before the market even opened. Had I started the with nothing specific in mind, I doubt would have pulled the trigger at all and the day would have been a complete wash. It's a good practice to develop if you have the discipline to follow through.

    bolter
     
    #54     Feb 6, 2006
  5. xxxskier

    xxxskier Guest

    bolter,

    thanks to you my first day of actual futures trading was profitable (paper trading last week). i developed my plan based on your POC, UVA and LVA levels, however, i was both a little too eager and wimpy, but it worked out okay in the end. i ended up taking 3.5 points from ES today, three long trades, one short. i could of been up 5.5 points today but i screwed up an order....i'm only swinging 1 contract until i can be consistently profitable with real money. today was a good start.

    i'm hoping you post POC, UVA and LVA levels again.....very helpful. I don't have the right software yet to do my own profile, but I may try it by hand tonight for the practice and experience.....hopefully I'll have the time and energy for this tonight....wife has the flu and my 5 y/o daughter is bouncing off the walls....

    any recc. on software for MP? I'm convinced that MP is the only way to go, at least for me.
     
    #55     Feb 6, 2006
  6. xxxskier

    xxxskier Guest

    bolter - i forgot to mention there is an interview in the February Active Trader magazine, page 54, with a CTA who digs into CoT data....
     
    #56     Feb 6, 2006
  7. xxxskier

    xxxskier Guest

    final post for the night...

    i tried to figure out POC, UVA, and LVA using the old-fashioned 'by hand and eye' method (no software), using price at volume as a guide, i guestimated for the actual POC, LVA and UVA levels.

    Here's what I came up with:

    ES POC=1268.5, UVA=1269, LVA=1265.5

    YM POC=10812, UVA 10821, LVA 10801

    I'm too tired to do NQ and ER2...............
     
    #57     Feb 7, 2006
  8. This is an excellent journal with some great questions from all! One of the most beneficial journals on ET in my opinion.

    I use Tradestation and it allows you to create a crude MP and VP chart using the "Price Distribution" and "Volume Distibution" analysis techniques under "Activity Bar". I recently started playing around with VP, because of this journal. The charts aren't as clean an Bolter's but I think they are adequate. See attachment for an example. The first chart is MP and the second one is VP.
     
    #58     Feb 7, 2006
  9. Hopefully the screenshot gets attached this time.
     
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    #59     Feb 7, 2006
  10. bolter

    bolter

    xxxskier,
    Congratulations - you're off to a great start. Winning on a tough day should make you feel good - I'll best most traders gave money back yesterday. Since you are new to futures trading (I will assume you have experince trading stocks) I advise you to proceed slowly, stick with trading single lots until you have a week where you win 5 days out of 5. Spend time thinking about what can go wrong and how you will respond. Not getting a fill, connection problems, data feed goes down etc. Practice getting out of bad trades until it becomes second nature so that when it does happen instinct takes over.

    Just your for you I will post my levels for the next week, but after that I can offer no guarantees. I stated in the opening post of this thread that I didn't want to be in this position. Here's a site that is updated every day with MP levels and other stuff. I can not vouch for their accuracy or integrity. Additionally, this is probably bog standard MP which means that his levels will vary from mine on a regular basis. You might want to compare them for the next week and note the differences.

    http://www.deltat1.com/DailyNotes/dailynotes.aspx


    As you know I do most of my work in Matlab/Excel, but I do have the eSignal add-on. If you have eSignal then the add-on is worth the $10 p/m. Have a look through They's thread for software recommendations. For your own sake you need to become fully self-sufficient in your trading ASAP. You don't want to have to rely upon anybody - including me. Read the material, get some software and learn like hell.

    Hope the wife gets better and thanks the magazine reference, I'll have a look.

    b-b-b-b-bolter
     
    #60     Feb 7, 2006
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