Market Profile Plus by bolter

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by bolter, Jan 31, 2006.

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  1. rshuhart

    rshuhart

    Currently, at the moment, I do not day trade, but I'm wondering what anyones reaction was today who used MP S/R levels when the ES blew through yesterdays high and the UVA, and then quickly headed south.

    Also, was the bounce off the LVA after the UVA breakout failed and continued to smash though the POC enough to turn anyone's bias?

    Or perhaps did it take crossing the POC again and then having the ES retrace to the POC as support and continue upwards to change bias?

    Ryan
     
    #201     Feb 15, 2006
  2. Top of the D' Mate. Thanks for a fantastic journal. It sure got me off of my sorry arse and working. Darn near blew out the account 'till I found this thread. Second best newbie day today. :)

    Trading the YM....
     
    #202     Feb 15, 2006
  3. bolter

    bolter

    PaperTrader,
    That really depends on the trade itself. If it's purely an opening play (eg: gap fade) then usually I'll pull them by about 10:30. If it's an initial bias trade, I'm usually looking to get filled in the am, and will yank them by about 12:00. Other trades I'll leave all day. For example, buying the S/R, LVA on the ES today. An absolute no-brainer so I'll leave the orders all day, which worked a treat I might add.
    Hth
     
    #203     Feb 15, 2006
  4. bolter

    bolter

    Ragincajun,
    The worst Aussie impression I've ever "heard" mate!
     
    #204     Feb 15, 2006
  5. bolter

    bolter

    Sometimes the way the market action plays out it feels like fishing in a barrel.

    As I said pre-market the key thing to watch today was the old high on the YM (red line on YM chart). We bounced right off that level (to the tick), which coincided with an overbought CCI (+200) , TICK of +1000 and Keltner penetration. Plus we were pushing a trendline on the ES, and S/R. A more perfect short you will never see folks. We then sold off to the LVA (actually through in the case of the YM) , and then bounced back to the highs of the day. You couldn't have scripted it better yourself.

    ES Chart
    [​IMG]

    YM Chart
    [​IMG]

    Two other things to point out from todays action. Notice how the vaccuum on the ES has acted like a magnet for prices the last two days, it wants to trade around it to fill in the void. Todays action may have been enough and now we can move away from it. Secondly, if you remember I revised the LVA upward today - see how well that worked?

    Actually one final point. I really like the action on the eSignal volume bar chart, but I DO NOT like the way the CCI behaves on it. It doesn't feel right and gives false divergences - anybody else notice this? Maybe a momentum indicator, being a function of time, does require it to be measured in units of time afterall.

    This makes up for not trading on Valentines Day. I trust you guys did well today also.

    bolter
     
    #205     Feb 15, 2006
  6. Bolter,

    Can you clarify a small point for me. Are your S/R lines simply the largest volume points that exist above and below the UVA and LVA?

    Thanks in advance,

    Runningbear
     
    #206     Feb 15, 2006
  7. No truer word have been said!
    7 points on the way down and 8 points on the way back up on the ES for me.
    One word......SWEEEEET!
    PT
     
    #207     Feb 15, 2006
  8. bolter

    bolter

    rsuhart,
    I know this stuff can get confusing, but believe me if you work with it for a while it starts becoming instinctive.

    The way to trade with MP is as follows:
    - Determine if a VA is currently established.
    - If so you want to buy when the market is in the lower end of value, and sell when we are at the upper end.
    - If a VA is not clearly established or is being challeneged you need to be positioned to take advantage of range extensions.
    - The bias should ensure that you are correctly positioned according to the above rules, and that you will be buying weakness and selling strength.

    If you accept these guidelines, then by 10:15 you should have known that there was an extremely high probability that we will continue to trade around the VA for the rest of day (ie: no range extensions), and the rest should have been easy.

    On days like this when you are bracketing/rotating I pretty much ignore the POC. The POC is more relevant when you are establishing a range, I find.

    I hope this all makes sense. It's a bit difficult to get across concepts in this format when information get presented witout a logical sequence.
     
    #208     Feb 15, 2006
  9. bolter

    bolter

    Hey PaperTrader,
    You're my star pupil! Good for you.
     
    #209     Feb 15, 2006
  10. bolter

    bolter

    Runningbear,
    No they are volume peaks from the longer term VP, without any regard for the VA whatsoever.

    This is the VP before todays action. If you study this carefully you'll understand exactly what yesterdays action was all about and how forseeable it was.

    [​IMG]
     
    #210     Feb 15, 2006
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