Morning all. Here's what's running through my tiny little cerebellum at this moment. I've been saying for a few days that I don't really feel like anybody likes this market at the moment, which is troubling. We've just put in what should be an important low on the ES at 1256, with solid confirmation. We're just above long term support. We've got plenty of room overhead before we start challenging the recent highs. What's not to like about it? In order for this market to make a sustained move higher we need participation by the cash markets. Here's what I would look for to confirm this. All indexes solidly posetive and holding onto their gains, a falling TRIN preferrably below 1, and the $TICK skewed higher regularly pushing +1000. I could be wrong but I don't think we'll see this today, but keep it in mind. Let's see if they want another chance to buy down at these levels? My levels for today: ES 1275.75 1274.50 1270.00 YM 10952 10930 10910 ER2 728.60 727.80 724.00 I'll finish out the week on the ES. Next week we might try the YM for a change. Looks like we're are going to open flat, despite being higher earlier on Globex. Clearly we will be well below yesterdays VA. And that means? .... right a negative bias. I'll be looking to short rallies/resistance and cover at support. If we open below it watch yesterdays LOD at 1265.25 for resistance. Overhead we still have 1268.75 which remains solid S/R, and the LVA at 1270. I would be examining my bias if we get anywhere near the POC. Below we have 2 recent UVA's around 1264-1264.50. And we have recent support at 1258.50. I don't have real high hopes for this market today - but I hope like hell it proves me wrong. bolter
I'm sure you guys know this but if we retrace through yesterdays action you need to keep an eye on the levels that were important S/R yesterday, because traders have a memory - that's why S/R works. Worth remembering. b
there again excellent analisys, my eyes are opening up wide now with more clarity. Bolter fwiw, i would like to see you continue with the ES commentary as i am learning from you. You can always add the YM to the program. i don't know if that would demand too much of your time, but i would like to see you keep with the ES. thanks for your sharing up to this point. Like i said before you have helped me very much. thanks again. Lotus 7
Yes, A big "Thank you" To Bolter. I subscribed to eSignal's addon sometime ago but didn't know how to use it then and thought it was useless. You opened my eyes in the past week and eSignal should thank you for my re-subscription. Please do continue to post here regularly but of course at your own convenience.
For those interested. Here is a link to the CBOT handbook/study guide on Market Profile. http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1184,00.html
Thanks guys. The levels worked just great again today. I had my best day since starting the journal. I've been waiting for this sort of action to show you another event that will cause me to change my bias intraday. Today I started with a negative bias, but as we retested the 1256 low I was looking for confirmation that is was in so I could shift to posetive. At 10:35-10:40 we got exactly that - the price level held and we were severely oversold. How could I tell we were oversold? 1. A selling climax on large volume. 2. A TRIN of +2 3. A CCI of -200 4. A TICK of -800. That was it - the final downside flush, at least for the day. I then usually give the market say 30 mins to prove the selling is done before shifting bias. That LOD should hold for the rest of the day, and perhaps for a few days to come. At that point I'm then looking to pullbacks/support and sell resistance. Thankfully the market gave me a chance to get long at 11:35. I hope you guys had a good day also. If not why not?
Papertrader, How do you do on the YM today? You must have had a good day. We bounced of the LVA, sold off to vaccuum level and then traded up to your 10895 level. Perfect!
Bolter, Where does your S/R levels come from on your last chart of the ES. Are they pivot levels? or High/Low volume clusters or something else completely? Great journal. Been following it every day.
dajester147, Those specific levels you mentioned come from my Volume Profile. If you read the entire thread you should get a better idea. bolter