Market Profile forward test journal

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by guy2, May 14, 2005.

  1. guy2


    I will attempt to keep you updated with the forward testing that I'm doing on the Market Profile 'single print' strategy in this thread.

    So far 6 trades taken.

    Trade 1: Loss $420
    Trade 2: Loss $420
    Trade 3: Profit $980
    Trade 4: Profit $980
    Trade 5: Profit $80
    Trade 6: Loss $420

    Cumulative Profit at close on Friday: $780

    (this thread moved from here:
  2. guy2


    Yesterday's trade lost $420 and today's made $280.

    Gross -$400 and +$300 and commission on each $20.

    I will keep this spreasheet updated with the details of the strategy.

    And post to this thread when I update the sheet.

    That way you can see the summary sheet and trade details etc.

    Let me know if anybody finds this useful...
  3. guy2


    Cumulative profit now $680 after 9 trades this month using 4 contracts per trade with an assumed capital start of $20,000 which allows $5,000 per contract margin.
  4. guy2


  5. guy2


    Up over 10% in first month on this strategy so far. 1 day of trading with this strategy left.

    Next month I will probably change the rules and reset the account to zero. I want to make this strategy more accessible to the smaller trader and so will start testing a strategy with a smaller starting account size ($10,000 instead of $20,000) and simpler rules and few contracts traded.
  6. guy2


    Single Print Strategy Spreadsheet updated.

    Yesterday's trade made $740 net profit ($760 gross) and the cumulative profit for this month is now $2,890.

    This is almost 15% in the first month (so far). IMHO: not too shabby.

    (Watch this all fall apart on the last day of trading on Tuesday :))
  7. You would have seen it fall apart already.
  8. hi guy2

    what is your connection with " deltat1 " ?

  9. Hi, guy2. Great journal. I use MP to trade nat gas.

    Just so I understand your strategy, I've attached a chart of Friday's ER2 trading. (The periods are a bit different with CQG.) As I understand it, you're buying on retests of single prints created during the day. You say that your entry price is one tick inside the single print, 616.50 in this case, and your stop is at 615.50.

    Two questions. First, did you enter the trade when the price first returned to 615.50 in the "N" period, or did you wait for price to trade through the single prints and start moving back up? Second, might I ask why your stop is set so far away? I ask because the "received" view of MP has it that single prints that are traded back through are no longer valid. That is, once traded through, the prices are now "accepted" and no longer act as support/resistance? It seems if this is true, you could set a stop much closer. Have you found this "rule" fails to hold for your instruments.

    Thanks in advance for any help.

  10. guy2


    A limit order is placed 1 tick inside the single print so "on first hit" is the answer.

    This is a forward test (simulation) to see what stop sizes would be best for this strategy. So far 1 point seems to be good. tighter than that would have taken out some of the most profitable trades I believe.
    ER2 appears to need wiggle room.

    I hope this helps.
    #10     May 31, 2005