08/17/15 Recap and prep (for 8/18). Higher volume and overlapping to higher value implies a moderately strong mkt. Looking at strictly price one would come to the same conclusion. But, for the profile, looking through its lens, we have a very poor structure. Technically 5 distributions. Ive never seen 5, maybe 4 once. A distribution is separated by single print TPO's. The number of distributions combined with anomalies (flat spots on the profile) indicates day and short term traders controlling today's action, very emotional. We also now have a weak high. A weak reference is when price comes within 1 tick of a previous reference. Today's high is 1 tick below last week's poor high on Monday. I would like to see continuation Tuesday as we have broke through the short term down trendline on the daily chart. ***** Conflicting Info ***** Positive****** 1) Outside day (to friday); bullish 2) 1 T.F. higher on daily 3) Value and TPO POC migrated w price 4) Excess low on today's profile Negative***** 1) Very poor profile structure 2) Low confidence mkt over all 3) 26wks of zero direction; balance.
8/18/15 Morning Update. Volume is light; 154K as of 0535am PST. I'm calling O/N inventory short since when looking at the expanded profile, most of the trading has been to the downside. Collapsed would give one a balanced inventory. However, I'm going to apply balance rules today in my trading. They are: 1) Look above or below balance and fail. Which would target the opposite end of the range 2) Remain in balance. 3) Look above or below balance and accelerate. Keep in mind that yesterday was dominated by day timeframe traders (left the very poor structure). So there are alot of longs from yesterday. Possibly a liquidating break should the mkt open with confidence to the downside.
08/19/15 Morning Update. Fitting in a short recap, as I was unable to post one after mkt close yesterday. Yesterday was a balancing day. The profile has left a poor low and a combination of a poor and weak high. These are also combined with two other days of poor highs covered in a previous post. Now, these three days are exponentially potent to be repaired (repaired is being revisited by the mkt- only during pit session hours). Carry this fwd. O/N Volume is moderate at 179K as of 0545am PST. O/N inventory is short but not 100%. As of now there is a 3 handle gap (gaps for profile concerns are measured from the previous pit high or low, not the settle). Gap rules apply. 1) Go with all gaps that dont fill right away. 2) If the gap fills and value cannot get to at least overlapping there will probably be a late day rally in the direction of the gap. O/N high 2098 O/N low 2084 Prior pit high 2100.25 Prior pit low 2090.25
Hello - Have had some family in town the past couple of days. So havent been able to post a recap. Will resume this evening.
08/21/15 Recap and prep (for 8/24). Highest daily and weekly volume of the year, and largest range day of the year. Broke through several technical levels Friday, and out of the 25 week balance bracket. Analyzing this on the profile I will admit, it a little difficult. It is this year that I've really incorporated it into my trading. This whole year has been range bound making analysis rather easy. I do see that there is only two ticks of excess on the lows so this auction to the downside may not be over. On such a volatile day like Friday, several ticks of excess would be more re-assuring that the downward auction may be complete. I have placed fibb retracements on the weekly and daily chart. Oddly, they both have a level at 1959 area to the downside. The 1980 level has two single prints, if the mkt finds acceptance above this level I'll be looking for the POCs and halfback as potential targets to the upside at 1995.25 Lastly, on the daily chart the mkt has dug fairly deep below the 200 day MA. All of the above supports solid confirmation of a reordering of the markets thinking.
08/24/15 Morning Update. Vertical out of balance, and still probing for two sided trade. The nearest destination is to the downside. Which may be the Oct 2014 monthly low around the 1800 price level. I say level because different data feeds may have the low of Oct '14 different than others. However, the lock level down for the es is 1831 as of now. The gap is not even worth mentioning nor the gap rules. Volume is incredible for this time (0545am PST); 1,106,000. O/N high is 1964.75 O/N low is 1892 0625 - es lock limit down 1870 hit.
8/24/15 Recap and prep (for 8/25) Incredible day goes without saying. 5.3M contracts in the ES alone. The profile is much too stretched out (120pts) to try and post. Price made it all the way to test the Dec '14 monthly low at the 1947 level and did not find acceptance. Which was reached in F period. The rest of the afternoon session gave back all of the am session gains. Not exactly sure what to make of the fact that the settle is exactly today's open; 1868.75 The 1800 level is still a possibility for the mkt to probe to. This level was made back in Oct '14.
08/25/15 Morning Update. O/N Volume is high; 685K as of 0545am PST. Wide range overnight, 76 handles. Inside of yesterdays range; in balance. O/N inventory is 100% long. Should we remain in balance today, there are several levels that may be targets. They are: TPO POC 1917.25 Vol POC 1907 O/N halfback 1910 Monday's halfback 1890.75 CME Settle 1871.25 If we look above balance and accelerate the weekly low (from 2/06/15) 1958.50 is a level to pay attention to. Beyond that would be the gap close at 1968. If we look below and accelerate, there is 30 handles of single prints to contend with. O/N high 1948.5 O/N low 1871.75 Pit high 1950.75 Pit low 1831
8/25/15 Recap and prep (for 8/26) Lower volume today w attempted direction being down usually implies a moderately strong mkt. But it's obvious there is still weakness across all the majors. All rallies were met with selling. However, value remained overlapping to higher. Overall today was technically in balance to yesterday. That is the ruling reason for today's session. Late afternoon saw a huge liquidation and left several ticks of excess on the lows. Jim Dalton always says, sometimes a market has to break before it can rally. The late day auction as far as the profile is concerned is complete. Doesn't mean the next one can't be another to the downside. I'll be keeping this in mind should tomorrow show some strength. Still as of now, we are in balance on a daily basis, and out of balance to the downside on the intermediate timeframe.
8/26/15 Morning Update. Volume is lighter than yesterday yet still high: 620K at 0545am PST. O/N has wide range; 73 handles. O/N inventory is long but not 100%. Most of the activity has been on the bid side, steady. As of now we would be opening in balance relative to the past two days. Balance rules should be applied: 1) Look above or below balance and fail; the opposite extreme becomes the destination in this case. 2) Look above or below and accelerate; which would initially target the prior pit levels / O/N levels. Beyond these levels on the upside would be the weekly low from 2/6/15 at 1958.50, then the gap fill at 1968. To the downside past the levels mentioned above would be the Oct '14 low; the 1800 area. O/N high 1923.50 O/N low 1850.5 Prior pit high 1947.25 Prior pit low 1860 Settle 1873.75 I apologize for the graphics, I couldnt fit the whole profile into it.