My theory on the current bull market is that it will take a shock to bring it down for a double dip. Possible causes: 1) Taxes---e.gov needs revenue. 2) Interest rate increases. 3) Debt default. Traditionally the market peaks in Spring and nadirs in Fall. If this is true then mid-March, mid- April, and mid-May come to mind as temporal sell points. Statistically the market goes up 75% of the time. So statistically we have a 75% chance we will end up 2010 on Dec31st above 1115. Problems: We ran hard in a 12 month period. Looking back unemployment peaks 20 months after peak job loss. We are up into resistance and mid-March, mid- April, and mid-May are traditionally temporal sell points. My take: Trade don't buy and hold but as many are finding out the environment for unhedged shorts is not favorable either. The doomsday complete meltdown scenario could unfold and investors need to be wary but as has been seen not if the FED can help it.