Market Outlook

Discussion in 'Trading' started by GrandSupercycle, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Congratulations all who bought the dip this am. We are headed for the 12th up week in QQQ ever since "the rally was over" declaration.
     
    #2121     Mar 23, 2012
  2. March 12, 2012
    THIS EXCELLENT CALL AND INSIGHTFUL CHART RECORDED FOR POSTERITY.

    [color=light blue]March 8, 2012
    bone
    ET Sponsor
    http://www.spreadprofessor.com
    There is NO competent technical basis to be calling a major market "top" in the S&P. None.
    ... If I was already long, I would lighten up at 1370 ( last Fall's highs ), 1425, 1500, and short 1575.[/color]
    http://i40.tinypic.com/33o5gxu.png


    March 22, 2012
    MORE EXCELLENT ANALYSIS & INSIGHTFUL CHARTING RECORDED FOR POSTERITY.

    March 21, 2012
    bone
    ET Sponsor
    http://www.spreadprofessor.com
    We are not in a 'rising wedge'.
    There is no 'uptrend degradation'.
    We are in a full blown bullish trend channel...

    http://i44.tinypic.com/2wn4x0l.png
     
    #2122     Mar 24, 2012
  3. Link to: www.fitrade.com


    By: Alex Cho with Fitrade

    Quote from: Credit Suisse
    The ECB provided another substantial liquidity injection to the financial system in the euro area. The second 3-year LTRO (long-term refinancing operation) provided a total of nearly €530bn in fixed rate funding, slightly above the consensus median expectation of €450bn. No further 3-year funding operations have been announced but we would not exclude them if events on the economic and/or political front turn more sour again. (end quote)

    The recent decline in the EUR/USD pair has everything to do with LTRO. As the ECB accumulates a total of 3.1T Euros in European Debt on its balance sheet. Which means that 3.1T Euros have been “created”, or to be more accurate. The ECB issued more currency, and bought bond notes from the secondary market in order to inflate bond values, drop interest rates, while reducing the supply of bonds on the secondary markets. Forcing large institutions to invest in other assets that have equivalent scale like the stock market, or chase other high yielding assets like foreign treasury bonds with lower credit ratings.

    The theme is that both the federal reserve and ECB have halted their rapid issuance of currency. Because both forms of policy easing is over in both the USA and Europe. We have to compare the current Federal reserve rate to the ECB rate to determine who’s inflating the economy faster.

    From: Global-Rates
    ECB Interest Rates Over Previous Year

    Currently the ECB has a 1% interest rate which is less inflationary than what the Federal Reserve has opted for in terms of interest rate policy.

    From: Global-Rates
    Federal Reserve Interest Rates Over Previous Year

    Currently the Federal reserve has a .25% interest rate. So going forward the US economy is going to inflate at a faster rate, which should, and actually has lead to the reversal in the EUR/USD pair.

    EUR/USD has recovered after I highlighted the pivot point on the chart in my previous blog post, and I believe the EUR/USD will continue to go higher based on the comparative interest rate structure between the two economic zones.

    The downside is that the EUR/USD falls lower on tail risk which would lead to another round of LTRO, or if economic growth were to miss expectations leading to ECB interest rate cuts. Any mix of negative data from Europe in other words, will promptly reverse the positive trend in the EUR/USD.
     
    #2123     Mar 25, 2012
  4. Come to my blog, there's some "actual" information there.
     
    #2124     Mar 25, 2012
  5. EURUSD H+S pattern on daily chart continues.

    USDCAD daily uptrend continues.
     
    #2125     Mar 26, 2012
  6. SPX weekly showing two rising wedges and (green) megaphone.
    Risk of waterfall sell off continues.

    [​IMG]
     
    #2126     Mar 26, 2012
  7. Gold & Silver indicate where stocks want to go ...


    March 14, 2012
    Why did ET admin / mods open two of my unread private messages ?
    Anyone got the guts to own up ?
     
    #2127     Mar 26, 2012
  8. Due to substantial SPX buy support, more short covering rally is likely.
     
    #2128     Mar 26, 2012
  9. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Does this reduce the risk of a waterfall selloff then? How many shorts are there that we've had a 20% short covering rally?
     
    #2129     Mar 26, 2012
  10. S2007S

    S2007S

    Yep BUBBLE ben bernanke saying today that he would be providing more necessary liquidity!

    Investors addicted to the dribble that BUBBLE ben bernake speaks of, this is a pathetic market, only way to move it is with stimulus, talk about a sad, pathetic market place! Whew, Im just wondering when they will be able to take this market off all these trillions of dollars they are pumping into it, I want to see a real market, not a market thats pumped up with cheap liquidity. Enough of the games.
     
    #2130     Mar 26, 2012