If price has risen to gain a position above the 50EMA, it might be in a trend. I don't say it is, this is just a crude dividing line. Prices blow the 50EMA are probably not in on-going uptrends, prices above the 50EMA might be in on-going uptrends. They won't all be, but some might be. Trend theory says that the most likely thing a price in a rising trend will soon be doing is rising.
My trades follow long-term trends. I need a basket of markets to do this as most charts are not showing a trend at any one time.
As expected, last week's extreme low forex "normality" of 3/26 was followed by a strong increase this week to 18/26, a jump from 11% to 69%. Whether this measure means anything objective or not, it was a much better week for long-term trend-following. My own basket went from a small deficit to an unrealised gain more than 3 times higher. For next week I'd expect the score to be stuck in the mid-range, 50-75%, still a good prospect for trend-followers.
Last week, 23 out of the 26 moved in line with their intermediate trends over the week. That is, most of the pairs with upwards sloping 50EMA's on 23/11 rose further last week, and most of the pairs with downwards sloping 50EMA's fell further. This is the highest "normality" score over the last 11 weeks. Maybe this was a valid signal to close all long-term trend-following positions? My weaker unrealised profit line suggests so.
%% Good question tomorton; i would add something else, which applies to stocks/indexes, maybe ,may not Forex. 200day moving average , with discretion.; so a rising 50dma , but below a 200day movinga can/ is bear[down ]trending a lot. And i sure you have seen this pattern a lot; 2 or 4 closes, or more, above 50 dma in a good downtrend doesnt mean much @ all.I do like a 50dma, also.
This week, only 11 of the 26 forex majors ended with a trend-following performance. This has certainly hurt my unrealised profit figure, and I would definitely have ended the week better off if I had closed after the London session close last Friday, or any time before the London session open on the Monday. I've got to think that once the market has moved to an extreme, 23/26 (88%), its more likely to revert back towards the opposite extreme than continue rising, so profit riding on such a strong performance should justifiably be banked, disregarding the individual chart TA's.
%% Thats true; with a good trender like QQQ. Which finally found a bottom between 80+90%off all time Hi. Single stocks can + do trend much better, some ; GE is down better than 90%,[from 60area ]still going down strong- but more risk for swing-position trade.I dont like enter on a 2oo period ma; but would not plan on a rise/give back back to 200day moving average.