Hi everyone, I recently decided I would record one of my trading screens, all day every day, and publish clips from when the markets are at their most exciting (to me). A highlight show, if you will, but for the markets. Why? Just as a hobby. I cover scheduled data releases - obvious stuff like NFP, ISM Manufacturing, Inflation data, Central Bank Decisions... And also unscheduled releases, be that World War 3, Draghi making a surprise statement, whatever... So without further ado, here are some interesting 3/4 minute videos from today (Tuesday 25th March 2014). Unscheduled Events http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOdyHDl5K40 In the early afternoon (12:50 UK Time), ECB's Makuch claimed members of the ECB board are prepared to take decisive steps if needed and one of the possibilities is adding liquidity. 6E behaved nervously and this was a sign of things to come later on... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XM-mmBOFPI The Big Dog Draghi was scheduled to speak at the Sciences Po Conference in Paris, and at 16:15 UK Time he re-iterated that the ECB stands ready to take additional monetary measures. Nothing new right? Well 6E took a considerable dive and it didn't require a high speed supercomputer to get in on the action either. On a Harry Hindsight Impact Scale, I'd call this a 6! Scheduled Events http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJS5UO7Tht4 09:00 AM London Time saw the release of German IFO Business Climate - 110.7 vs Expectations of 110.9 To my surprise, the EUR moved a fair bit, albeit so quickly perhaps the best trade there was to fade it? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylIXkd12V08 09:30 AM London Time came and with it the release of UK CPI at 1.7% vs Expectations of 1.7% Despite coming in bang in-line, 6B similarly put in a considerable move, although no easy money in my opinion to be had. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpzO2-ZDhs4 14:00 London Time saw US Consumer Confidence hitting 82.3, a good bit above the Expected figure of 78.5 The market (ES) response was muted, and the failure to rally was perhaps a reliable signal that the next move was to the downside. Several points were lost over the next half-hour. Note to Admins: I hope I have not violated any rules (?)
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/xeeS98TkCyk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> A very quiet day so I'll simply leave you with US Durable Goods. Boeing single handedly pushed it to 2.2% but otherwise the figure wasn't too far off expectation. Is this figure likely to impact Fed policy? Nah.
It was not an exciting day for the markets. * 09:30 UK time saw UK Retail Sales hitting 1.8% as against expectations of only 0.3%. No surprise to see GBP spiking to the upside â but too fast for any human to safely profit from, surely? <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/PFPr5KGEly0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> * The markets were left with little else to do through to 12:30 UK time whereupon US GDP (Final estimate for Q4â13) came in marginally below expectation; 2.6% annualized. Stale news, though. Simultaneously US initial jobless claims came in broadly as expected at 311k (Exp 323k). The S&P 500 barely gave a shrug of the shoulders, and Iâll not bother with a video for that reason. * Later on, US Pending Home Sales fell, -0.8% m/m and disappointing against expectations for 0.1% gain. Poor weather was suggested as a contributing factor, but in any event, the S&P 500 once again couldnât seem to care less. No justification for a video. All in all, a forgettable day, so letâs move on to the next.
By my estimations there was some free money to be had today. But you had to be quick, and you'd have to have deep enough pockets to really hit the market hard and make the most of the move... 14:52 UK time The Fed's Yellen spoke with a slightly more Dovish tone than the market has gotten used to. The S&P 500 caught a bid and gradually started to move North - to claim a quick one or two points wouldn't have been overly difficult, although the lack of follow-through certainly capped any potential profits. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/DW4HP9sqc4g" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> 14:45 UK time saw the scheduled release of US Chicago PMI figures: 55.9 as against 59.2 Expected. This is clearly Tier-2 data, for my money. The market didn't move much despite the number coming in a good way off target. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/mTug39hIXtI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> 10:00 UK time. To kick off the session Eurozone CPI came in slightly below expectation, at 0.5%. Marginally more scope for the ECB to take action? The Euro apparently thought so as it took an immediate dive, although classic market action: it bounced right back up. The only opportunity, in my opinion, was to fade the move and bank on it reverting. Not a good spot by any stretch of the imagination, though. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/TyBkh85NSTA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Today was significant for three reasons, in my eyes. Two pieces of big scheduled economic data releases, and thirdly, the fact this was the day of the month. Analysis has shown there is a tendency in the US equity markets to see a rally, as supposed inflows of fresh Fund money must be deployed across the markets. As to the data... * In the morning, 09:30 UK Time, GBP Manufacturing PMI came at a slightly disappointing 55.3 (as against 56.7 consensus). The jerk downwards in 6B was no surprise and nor was the speed of the move. Unless you own a supercomputer this was hardly a free money trade. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/zkYVRDs8ygk?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> * And again at 15:00 UK Time the story was repeated, with US ISM Manufacturing PMI registering 53.7 as against 54.2 expected. The markets seem to be very much driven by the central banks and ES initially continued to grind higher as it had been doing so since lunch time. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/OAE_TxQlJ8A" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Wow, thanks for the encouraging words. No update this evening, primarily because I don't think there was any particularly good breaking news today: US ADP numbers are a nonsense and not worth mentioning, and UK Construction PMI didn't have much impact either. I'm sure tomorrow will be very exciting though - ECB!!!
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/m8p2PIHpDw0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> The day many had been waiting for: ECB Statement. Draghi sits down and begins his report, having already decided to make no changes to lending and deposit rates. 2 minutes in, and 6E has rallied a good 30 points⦠but tentatively. My view is it may have in part been due to shorts unwinding their bets that Draghi had some hint of something up his sleeve. This is a special blog post in that the video is a full hour long, containing several major markets as they gyrate, alongside live audio from Draghiâs statement and Q&A session. Personally I didnât see any obvious trades to make. Yes, the Euro moved up, and later moved down, but I prefer the trades that are smacking you in the face: âThe ECB ⦠admits defeat⦠Mario is tired⦠I retireâ. That sort of news.
In some respects it was a boring session. Everyone was waiting for NFP and when it finally arrived it was broadly in-line with expectations. * NFP: 192K as against 199K consensus * Unemployment rate: 6.7% as against 6.6% consensus. But having said that, several markets have spent the remainder of the session trending beautifully. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/pzc7uXC40rQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Personally I prefer to sit on my hands until the market is really caught out (e.g. NFP of 100K, Unemployment of 6.5%), and while I am no Technical Analysis guru, the double top and subsequent break lower by the S&P 500 was a really inviting opportunity. Anyway, that will do for one week â please come back for the next!
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/PciV0gCISBk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> The most likely source of excitement looked set to be the evening release of FOMC Meeting Minutes. For those who don't know, every month the US Federal Reserve release a set of notes that provides clues as to what future policy measures they might take). Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently said that extraordinary commitment to dramatically lowering US unemployment is still needed and will be for some time - and she says her fellow policy makers at the Fed are in agreement. FOMC minutes reinforced this Dovish tone, and various markets attracted the attention of buyers....